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Reply #5: Ok, there's a known problem with this line of analysis [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Ok, there's a known problem with this line of analysis
We can't really "start with the breakdown of the 2004 presidential vote" unless we also assume that exit poll respondents in general accurately report who they voted for four years earlier. And what the history of exit polling (and other polling, for that matter) actually demonstrates is that respondents as a whole tend disproportionately to report having voted for whoever won four years ago -- whether the winner was Democratic or Republican, whether the winner was popular or unpopular (although that may influence the magnitude of the overstatement). Even Nixon got a bump. The evidence is summarized in Table 3 here, and elsewhere in the paper.

TIA has never been willing to take these facts into account in his analysis, so he's pretty much nowhere, as far as I can tell.
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