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Reply #142: darling, you're in a panic [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-31-09 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #140
142. darling, you're in a panic
Edited on Mon Aug-31-09 07:59 AM by OnTheOtherHand
ONE NY pre-election poll.

No, four NY pre-election polls in the last week alone. As far as I know, there never was a NY pre-election poll that showed Kerry winning by anywhere near 31 points, even after being subjected to Truification. That's probably why you didn't project that Kerry would win NY by anywhere near 31 points.

And as I've pointed out repeatedly, and you've consistently ignored, the problem isn't just New York, and it isn't just Pennsylvania. The problem is that Bush doesn't perform any better against the pre-election polls (Truified or not) in the states with big red shift than in the others. Just like he doesn't perform any better against his 2000 baseline, at the state level or at the precinct level. These are all empirical findings that you disregard, because you have to, just like you have to disregard the NES evidence. And so it goes.

No, I don't agree that the "Bush average WPE" was 8.0. I don't disagree with the arithmetic, only the actual substance. Some of us think substance matters more. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

You still haven't made an intelligible argument about why Bush's approval rating has any bearing on the Gore defection rate. People -- whether they voted for Gore or not -- didn't have to approve of Bush's performance in order to vote for him. (And, lest you confuse anyone, we all know and agree that most New Yorkers didn't vote for Bush. The only thing at issue is the magnitude of the rout.)
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