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Reply #140: You want to talk about "blind faith"? OK. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-31-09 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #136
140. You want to talk about "blind faith"? OK.
Edited on Mon Aug-31-09 07:34 AM by WillE
You talk about "blind faith". I'll give you blind faith:

The NY LV poll had a 3% MoE.
But you hold on to it for dear life.

Come away from your fog machine and see if you can come up with a valid reason for your blind faith in ONE NY pre-election poll.

Was the Bush average WPE 8%?
Was the Clinton average WPE 0.6%
Now, just answer the question, YES or NO?

Since you claim to be one, let's do some poly sci.

2000: Gore 60; Bush 35; Nader/other 5%
2004: Bush 48% approval, but just 35% in NY
3 of 4 Nader voters defect to Kerry

Net: Kerry 63; Bush 36; Other 1

Here's where it gets interesting. Try to follow, if you can:

To match the recorded (58-40) vote, Bush needed to flip 4 of 60 Gore voters (6.7%), net of Bush defectors. But among Gore voters, Bush approval was probably only 25% since it was 35% among all NY voters, including Republicans and Indies.

Therefore, realistically, only 25% of Gore voters were vulnerable defectors. Bush needed 4 of 25 voters (16%) to match the recorded vote - again NET of Bush defectors.

Now to believe THAT takes some real BLIND FAITH - BECAUSE BUSH HAD 35% APPROVAL IN NEW YORK.

But since YOU are the one who is faith-based, that should not be a problem for you.
Stop smoking.
It's not good for your health.

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