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Reply #110: Now about those LVs and Rvs- you have shown us NADA [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-29-09 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #109
110. Now about those LVs and Rvs- you have shown us NADA
Edited on Sat Aug-29-09 04:02 PM by WillE
I showed you proof that Kerry's RV pre-elect was uniformly 2% higher than the LV.
You conveniently ignore that.

I provided an RV/LV analysis from 2004 based on the differential in the final national polls and 22 million new voters.
You conveniently ignore that.

It shows that Kerry's True Vote margin was largely due to new voters (he had 57-60%).
That's a 4.4 million vote margin in NEW voters.
This does NOT include Nader and Bush defectors.

Yes, OTOH, there was a net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters to Kerry.
You conveniently ignore that.

Oh, thanks for that late PA poll.
You did some work for a change.

So Zogby was 50-46, not 50-45.
Big Deal!
So it's 52.25-46.75 when undecideds are allocated - and it's still an LV poll.

In any case, the adjusted pre-elects are within the Exit Poll MoE.
Your cherry-picking is fruitless.

Not only that, it's demeaning and unprofessional.

You still have no conception of the fact that the state exit poll AGGREGATE (114,000 respondents)showed Kerry to be a 52-47% national winner - a 7% WPE.

The GEO gave him 51-48%
A True Vote analysis gave him 53-46%.

Cherry-picking a single state like PA which had a 2% MoE makes no sense whatsoever.
Especially when the PA True Vote matched the exits.

All that smoke you are throwing is rapidly dissipating.

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