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Reply #100: Your myths vs. the facts. Now show us your cherry-picked PA LV polls [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-29-09 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #99
100. Your myths vs. the facts. Now show us your cherry-picked PA LV polls
Edited on Sat Aug-29-09 12:05 PM by WillE
You never give up, do you?
Even when the evidence stares you right in the face.

Myth - Bush led the pre-election polls.
Fact - Registered Voter pre-election polls were more accurate than LV polls.
Fact - There were 22 million new voters. Kerry won 57-60% of new voters.


Your shortcomings are obvious to all.
You have shown us nothing.

Where are your pre-election LV polls?
Where are your pre-election RV polls?
Where are your uncounted votes?
Where is your voter mortality?
Where is your evidence that Undecided voters did not break for Kerry?

You ignore everything. Like this:

Pre-election polls

Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.

In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.

LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote.

The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.

A regression analysis of Kerrys national vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA).

Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share.

There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerrys LV poll share and LV/RV turnout.
In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%.
Newly registered Democrats came out in force.

OTOH, you only continue to show us how pathetic your game is.
You always try to get in the last word on this DEMOCRATIC Forum.
You always seek to blow fog on any and all analysis.
You always try to debunk any evidence which showed that Bush stole the election from a DEMOCRAT.

That's why you instructed Manjoo in that RFK Jr hit piece.
And that's why you have never failed to thrash ALL the work of True acivists:
John Conyers ("Ohio Report")
Greg Palast (investigative reporter, exposed FL 2000)
Mark C. Miller ("Losers Take All", etc.)

Steve Freeman ("Was the 2004 Election Stolen?")
Ron Baiman (USDC)
Kathy Dopp (auditing math)
Ion Sancho (an American Hero - Leon Cty Fl Elections Supervisor}
Paul Lehto (legal election activist)

Jim Lampley (HBO Boxing reporter)
Thom Hartmann (radio)
Mike Malloy (radio)
BradBlog (election activist, investigative reporter- he gave it to you good, didn;t he)
althecat (Scoop, DU)

autorank (DU, "Urban Legend")
Jonathan Simon (2006 Landslide Denied)
Bruce O'Dell (2006 Landslide Denied)
etc., etc.

But you support:
Farhad Manjoo
Mystery Pollster (another Mark)

Your siren song ended in 2005 in the Game thread.
But you are singing that "crap" to this day.

OTOH, get over it.
Bush lost.
You lost.

The true activists are winning, no thanks to you.

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