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Reply #99: sorry, you're still pwned [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-29-09 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #98
99. sorry, you're still pwned
You now admit, obliquely, that the best you can do with respect to Pennsylvania is to get the exit poll projection within the MoE of your pre-election projection. (Naturally, you have nothing to say about your, charitably, ignorant question about why one shouldn't use the composite projection; that's just another thing down the memory hole.) But you still offer no defense or excuse for ignoring every pre-election poll result except the one most favorable to Kerry.

You also offer no defense or excuse for "Add(ing) 2% to Kerrys share because of heavy NEW RV turnout (52-43%)." You call that the "True Vote," but to the rest of us, it looks an awful lot like the Made-Up Vote. (If you could demonstrate that the LV models assumed low turnout, you would have a case -- but you haven't demonstrated that, and you can't.)

But perhaps most telling, you still have nothing whatsoever to say about the surprise analysis. Even if the pre-election polls are all biased against Kerry until subjected to your Truification, that doesn't explain why Kerry does no better against the Truified numbers in states with low "red shift" than in states with high red shift.
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