You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #58: I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend. [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-24-09 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #57
58. I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend.
Edited on Mon Aug-24-09 07:37 AM by WillE
I was essentially correct in my prior analysis.
Hopefully, this will clear things up.

In the Top 15 NY counties, there were 516k more NET Election Day votes in 2004 than in 2000.
Nader/other declined by 143k votes from 2000.

Therefore, there were approximately 659K GROSS new voters (including Nader defectors) in 2004.
Assume that the 143k were defecting Nader voters.

Of the 659k:
Kerry gained 208k (31%); approximately 100k (70%) were Nader 2000 defectors.
Bush gained 451k (69%); approximately 43k (30%)were Nader 2000 defectors.

But we know that Kerry won approximately 60-70% of new voters in NY.
So how could Bush have had 69% of the 609k?

Only if there was a massive defection of Gore voters to Bush.
But a massive defection in 15 counties which gave Gore a 64-31% margin in 2000?

Urban Legend?

Election Day 2000/2004 Vote Changes
Top 15 NY Counties

Total Dem Bush Other
2004 5.268 3.253 1.943 0.072
100% 61.75% 36.88% 1.37%

2000 4.752 3.045 1.492 0.215
100% 64.08% 31.40% 4.52%

Change 0.516 0.208 0.451 (0.143)

Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC