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Reply #20: hmm [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-01-09 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. hmm
It's often trivial to find precinct level data that compare multiple races, provided that one is looking for that, and not for "item (question) analysis data, nor person fit data," nor "national poll data."

"I don't think this is unusual or new. Others have said so on DU and in more scholarly papers."

I'm sorry, but I can't tell what "this" is here.

"I would suggest that there are plenty of local races in Florida that appear to have outlier results while other races in the same precinct with the same machines do not. Jenning's and Castor's losses were examples."

I don't know about Castor's case, but one needn't merely "suggest" this for the Jennings race: one can easily document it. I and others were crunching precinct-level data from that election almost immediately after election day. You seem to be making all this sound much more difficult than it actually is. Polling data may add additional leverage. But a more urgent question might be: if some jurisdictions are providing timely access to election data, and others aren't, what needs to be done to prod the laggards into line?

Moreover, if there are plenty of other examples in Florida, someone ought to document them. That could be you. I don't think it's happening now.

(Minnesota just may set the gold standard for access. The SOS was posting precinct-level updates for every precinct in the state, all night long, with quasi-continuous updates -- I've been told they exceeded their guarantee of updates every 10 minutes. The data cover not just the statewide races, but all races, as far as I can tell.)
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