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Reply #11: TIA didn't offer an explanation...his results is consistent with possible problems. [View All]

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-31-09 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. TIA didn't offer an explanation...his results is consistent with possible problems.
There have been multiple reports lately of DRE analysis that shows possible dropped votes, etc.; and also there is no way to "trace" the actual voting. I said that those new reports on DRE misbehavior offer an explanation for how some of TIA's observations could have occurred. You can ALWAYS claim that there is not enough evidence for your own confidence or for legal "proof"; but replicability is one sign of a real effect. TIA shows unusual patterns over repeated measures (three elections), and the DRE/tabulator analyses show one possible explanation of miscounting. Pollster's non-transparent behaviors are questionable in many professional ways.

There are piles of anecdotal reports of switching. There are some local races with evidence of seating the wrong candidate.

After a while, like John Snow, reasonable people have to stand back and see the forrest. TIA has a global view and creative investigations; but is a little too dependent on parametric distributions. TIA lacks data at the unit of analysis that would be more diagnostic.

At the very least, I'd say there is confidence that Gore won Florida. I wonder (given Curtis's admissions), if the fight to prevent a recount here was more than just to win the election. Such a recount might have triggered a serious criminal investigation! In 2000, manipulations would have been less sophisticated and the Jeb/Rove folks were fighting to avoid being caught!
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