2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll (TIA)

[tiptoe]

2008 Landslide Denied:  Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm

Nov 7, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 65–57m votes (53–46%). That’s a very solid mandate, but his True Vote is better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004. Remember the 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m)? The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current 8 million vote margin would increase to 18m 80–62m — a landslide rivaling Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). View the Election Calculator projection below.

But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

Obama must have done better than the 53–46% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 55–43% (as projected by a few national pre-election polls).

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The 'Voted in 2004' category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE  46%-Bush 37%-Kerry returning-2004-voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update — before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms. Changes to the “How Voted” mix of returning-voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. Landslide denied.

In 2004, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2000' 43/37% Bush/Gore returning-voter mix was impossible;
in the 12:22am Preliminary NEP it was 41/39%.  Election stolen.

In 2006, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2004' 49/43% Bush/Kerry returning-voter mix was implausible;
in the 7pm Preliminary NEP it was 47/45%.  Landslide denied.

The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesn’t. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

Uncounted votes are always an important factor in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats always do 1–3% better in the polls than in the vote count.  In 2004, Bush won the "official" vote by 50.7–48.3%.  Kerry won the adjusted, preliminary National Exit poll ( 12:22am  13047 random sample)  by 51–48%.  The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always 'forced to match' the states-reported vote count, without consideration of uncounted and/or switched votes. Therefore, Bush won the Final NEP in 2004 by 51–48%.

In the 2000 election, 105.4m votes were recorded out of 110.8m cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast (3.4m were uncounted). That is a 1.5m net votes to Kerry, cutting the Bush margin in half. And that’s before vote suppression, stuffing and switching. The Election Calculator (see below) indicates that Kerry won by 67–57m, based on a feasible (and plausible) number of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters (4.9% mortality, 95% turnout), 3.45m uncounted votes and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

Once again, we need the unadjusted precinct exit poll data, not the Final National and State exit polls that are adjusted to match the recorded vote count. The media never releases that information, claiming the need for voter confidentiality. But we don’t want to know the names; we just want the pristine precinct exit poll data.

An analysis of Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. From 1988-2000, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote, after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 that was not the case: adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. Was it just a coincidence that HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term? After HAVA, many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occured on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals (for all voting machines, including optical scanners). The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported the unadjusted state exit poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote. These discrepancies indicated that Kerry won the 2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate by 52–47%.

The 2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.2–45.8%.  NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'voted in 2000' weightings.

In http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/cites.html#2006_Mid">2006, the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 56–42%. The 7pm National Exit poll had the Democrats winning by 55–43%. The Final NEP was forced to match a 52–46% vote count. The Democratic 12% margin was cut in half.


Summary of Election Model (EM) and Election Calculator (EC) results

Obama won the 2008 Final NEP "Voted 2004" category by 53.1–45.1%. Although this closely matched the EM (60% UVA) split, "Voted 2004" weights and shares were implausible.

Obama won the 2008 EC True Vote by 54.4–44.6%.
NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'Voted-2004' weightings.

Obama won the 2008 EC estimated Recorded Vote by 52.1–46.9%.
Assumptions: 3% of votes cast were uncounted; 3% of Obama’s votes switched to McCain.
The 70.2–63.3m estimated recorded vote is very close to the official vote.

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 53.1–44.9%.
Assumptions: Obama won 60% of the uncounted votes; 2% to 3rd parties

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 54.3–44.7.
Assumptions: Obama won 75% of the uncounted votes; 1% to 3rd parties

2008 FINAL National Exit Poll

Voted

2004   Mix   Obama  McCain Other       Notes
Kerry  37%    89%    9%     2%      37% too low; should be 42%
Bush   46%    18%    81%    1%      46% too high; should be 36%; 18% too high
Other  4%     66%    24%    10%      4% too high; should be 1% (third party vote)
DNV    13%    71%    27%    2%      13% too low; should be 21%

Total  100%   53.1%  45.1%  1.9%    Obama did better than 53.1%

DNV 2004
First-time Vote?
Yes    11%    68%    31%    1%      Obama won 68% of first-time voters
No     89%    50%    48%    2%

DNV04   2%    88%    11%    1%      Obama won 88% of others who Did not vote in 2004
DNV    13%    71%    27%    2%

-------------------------------------

2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the     True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%): a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a  7m vote margin.


2008 True and Recorded Vote
............ Obama   McCain Other  Total
True Vote     75.6   61.9   1.4    138.9
Vote Share    54.4%  44.5%  1.0%   100%

Uncounted     (3.1)  (.96)  (.08)  (4.17)
Switched      (2.3)  2.3    0.00   0.00

Recorded      70.2   63.3   1.3    134.7
Vote Share    52.1%  46.9%  1.0%   100%

2004 Calculated True Vote
 

 
 

2008 Calculated True Vote

Feasible 'Voted-2004'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 00/04' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '04

Kerry
Bush
Other

125.8
million

 

Calculated
True Vote

66.9
57.1
1.7

125.8

 

Deaths

3.2
2.8
0.1

6.0

 

Alive

63.7
54.3
1.7

119.7

 

Est '08 Turnout
of 'Voted 2004'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7

 

Total Votes
Cast in '08

25.1
60.6
51.6
  1.6

138.9
True Vote

 

'Voted 2004'
Weight

18.1%
43.6%
37.2%
1.1%

100.0%
138.9

2-pty

 

Obama

57%
91%
10%
64%

54.4%
75.6

55.0%

 

McCain

41%
8%
90%
17%

44.6%
61.9

45.0%

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.0%
1.4 

 

Refer to source for more on 2008 Election Calculator.

-------------------------------------

 

2004 Election Calculator

2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 

 
 

2004 Calculated True Vote

 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million

 

Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42

 

Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38

 

Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80

 

Deaths

2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41

 

Alive

52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39

 

Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13

 

Total Votes
Cast in '04

25.62
49.70
46.60
  3.82

125.74
True Vote

 

'Voted 2000'
Weight

20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74

 

Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9

 

Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73 

 

Sensitivity  Analysis
Kerry National Vote

Kerry Share of
Gore Voters

Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)

53.2%

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95%
93%
91%
89%
87%

54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%

54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%

54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%

55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%

55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%

 

Kerry Margin (millions)

9.87

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95%
93%
91%
89%
87%

11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8

12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9

13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9

14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9

15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9

 

Refer to source for additional Sensitivity Analysis on Kerry National Vote.