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2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll (TIA) [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-07-08 01:57 PM
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2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll (TIA)
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2008 Landslide Denied:  Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm

Nov 7, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 6557m votes (5346%). Thats a very solid mandate, but his True Vote is better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004. Remember the 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m)? The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obamas current 8 million vote margin would increase to 18m 8062m a landslide rivaling Johnson (64), Nixon (72) and Reagan (84). View the Election Calculator projection below.

But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

Obama must have done better than the 5346% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 5543% (as projected by a few national pre-election polls).

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The 'Voted in 2004' category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE  46%-Bush 37%-Kerry returning-2004-voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms. Changes to the How Voted mix of returning-voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. Landslide denied.

In 2004, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2000' 43/37% Bush/Gore returning-voter mix was impossible;
in the 12:22am Preliminary NEP it was 41/39%.  Election stolen.

In 2006, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2004' 49/43% Bush/Kerry returning-voter mix was implausible;
in the 7pm Preliminary NEP it was 47/45%.  Landslide denied.

The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesnt. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

Uncounted votes are always an important factor in the discrepancy between the polls (pre-election and exit) and the recorded vote. The Democrats always do 13% better in the polls than in the vote count.  In 2004, Bush won the "official" vote by 50.748.3%.  Kerry won the adjusted, preliminary National Exit poll ( 12:22am  13047 random sample)  by 5148%.  The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always 'forced to match' the states-reported vote count, without consideration of uncounted and/or switched votes. Therefore, Bush won the Final NEP in 2004 by 5148%.

In the 2000 election, 105.4m votes were recorded out of 110.8m cast. The 5.4m uncounted ballots were a combination of provisional, spoiled, lost and absentees. Therefore, we estimate that Al Gore won by at least 3m votes, not by the 540k recorded.

In 2004, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast (3.4m were uncounted). That is a 1.5m net votes to Kerry, cutting the Bush margin in half. And thats before vote suppression, stuffing and switching. The Election Calculator (see below) indicates that Kerry won by 6757m, based on a feasible (and plausible) number of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters (4.9% mortality, 95% turnout), 3.45m uncounted votes and 12:22am NEP vote shares.

Once again, we need the unadjusted precinct exit poll data, not the Final National and State exit polls that are adjusted to match the recorded vote count. The media never releases that information, claiming the need for voter confidentiality. But we dont want to know the names; we just want the pristine precinct exit poll data.

An analysis of Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies from 1988-2004 reveals some very interesting information. From 1988-2000, the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate vote share was within 1% of the recorded vote, after it was adjusted to include uncounted votes. But in 2004 that was not the case: adding the uncounted votes was not enough to make up the difference. Was it just a coincidence that HAVA (Help America Vote Act) was passed during the first Bush term? After HAVA, many new touch screen voting machines were installed nationwide.

The vast majority (90%) of vote-switching incidents at touch screens are from the Democrat to the Republican. We must assume that vote-switching also occured on the central tabulators which sum the precinct vote totals (for all voting machines, including optical scanners). The touch screens have no paper trail, so a vote recount is impossible. But this analysis will focus on uncounted votes.

In Jan. 2005, exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported the unadjusted state exit poll deviations (WPE) from the recorded vote. These discrepancies indicated that Kerry won the 2004 State Exit Poll Aggregate by 5247%.

The 2004 Election Calculator model indicated that Kerry won the True Vote by 53.245.8%.  NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'voted in 2000' weightings.

In http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/cites.html#2006_Mid">2006, the pre-election Generic polls indicated that the Democrats would win by 5642%. The 7pm National Exit poll had the Democrats winning by 5543%. The Final NEP was forced to match a 5246% vote count. The Democratic 12% margin was cut in half.


Summary of Election Model (EM) and Election Calculator (EC) results

Obama won the 2008 Final NEP "Voted 2004" category by 53.145.1%. Although this closely matched the EM (60% UVA) split, "Voted 2004" weights and shares were implausible.

Obama won the 2008 EC True Vote by 54.444.6%.
NEP 12:22am vote shares were assumed with feasible 'Voted-2004' weightings.

Obama won the 2008 EC estimated Recorded Vote by 52.146.9%.
Assumptions: 3% of votes cast were uncounted; 3% of Obamas votes switched to McCain.
The 70.263.3m estimated recorded vote is very close to the official vote.

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 53.144.9%.
Assumptions: Obama won 60% of the uncounted votes; 2% to 3rd parties

Obama won the 2008 EM True Vote by 54.344.7.
Assumptions: Obama won 75% of the uncounted votes; 1% to 3rd parties



2008 FINAL National Exit Poll

Voted

2004 Mix Obama McCain Other Notes
Kerry 37% 89% 9% 2% 37% too low; should be 42%
Bush 46% 18% 81% 1% 46% too high; should be 36%; 18% too high
Other 4% 66% 24% 10% 4% too high; should be 1% (third party vote)
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2% 13% too low; should be 21%

Total 100% 53.1% 45.1% 1.9% Obama did better than 53.1%

DNV 2004
First-time Vote?
Yes 11% 68% 31% 1% Obama won 68% of first-time voters
No 89% 50% 48% 2%

DNV04 2% 88% 11% 1% Obama won 88% of others who Did not vote in 2004
DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%

-------------------------------------

2008 Election Calculator

138.9m votes cast

Obama wins the True Vote by 76-62m (54.4-44.5%): a 14m vote margin.
Obama wins the Recorded Vote by 70-63m (52.1-46.9%): a 7m vote margin.


2008 True and Recorded Vote
............ Obama McCain Other Total
True Vote 75.6 61.9 1.4 138.9
Vote Share 54.4% 44.5% 1.0% 100%

Uncounted (3.1) (.96) (.08) (4.17)
Switched (2.3) 2.3 0.00 0.00

Recorded 70.2 63.3 1.3 134.7
Vote Share 52.1% 46.9% 1.0% 100%


2004 Calculated True Vote
 
 
 
2008 Calculated True Vote
Feasible 'Voted-2004'  Mix 
 
 
12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 00/04' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '04


Kerry
Bush
Other

125.8
million
 
Calculated
True Vote

66.9
57.1
1.7

125.8
 

Deaths

3.2
2.8
0.1

6.0
 

Alive

63.7
54.3
1.7

119.7
 
Est '08 Turnout
of 'Voted 2004'

DNV
95%
95%
95%


113.7
 
Total Votes
Cast in '08
25.1
60.6
51.6
  1.6

138.9
True Vote
 
'Voted 2004'
Weight
18.1%
43.6%
37.2%
1.1%

100.0%
138.9

2-pty
 

Obama
57%
91%
10%
64%

54.4%
75.6


55.0%
 

McCain
41%
8%
90%
17%

44.6%
61.9


45.0%
 

Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.0%
1.4 

 


Refer to source for more on 2008 Election Calculator.

-------------------------------------
 

2004 Election Calculator


2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 
 
 
2004 Calculated True Vote
 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 
 
 
12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00


Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million
 
Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42
 
Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.08
0.27

5.38
 
Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.53
4.23

110.80
 

Deaths

2.72
2.48
0.21

5.41
 

Alive

52.32
49.06
4.02

105.39
 
Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'

DNV
95%
95%
95%


100.13
 
Total Votes
Cast in '04
25.62
49.70
46.60
  3.82

125.74
True Vote
 
'Voted 2000'
Weight
20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%

100.0%
125.74
 

Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%

53.2%
66.9
 

Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%

45.4%
57.1
 

Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.37%
1.73 
 


Sensitivity  Analysis
Kerry National Vote

Kerry Share of
Gore Voters


Share of New Voters (DNV in 2000)
53.2%
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
61.0%
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.6%
50.8%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.0%
51.2%
54.8%
54.0%
53.2%
52.4%
51.7%
55.2%
54.4%
53.6%
52.8%
52.1%
55.6%
54.8%
54.0%
53.3%
52.5%

 

Kerry Margin (millions)
9.87
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
61.0%
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
11.8
9.8
7.8
5.8
3.8
12.8
10.8
8.8
6.9
4.9
13.8
11.9
9.9
7.9
5.9
14.9
12.9
10.9
8.9
6.9
15.9
13.9
11.9
9.9
7.9
 


Refer to source for additional Sensitivity Analysis on Kerry National Vote.





 

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