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Reply #22: I'm not sure of your point [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. I'm not sure of your point
I don't think massive fraud by e-voting occurred in 2004 (I don't see how it could have, given the complete non-correlation between the exit poll discrepancies and Bush's increase in vote share) so I don't have anything to scale up in 2008.

I do think that voter suppression cost Kerry a great many votes in 2004, and I'm worried that that will scale up in 2008, given that the demographics most likely to be disenfranchised in 2004 are those demographics likely to vote most overwhelmingly for Obama. This is why I think an accurate problem analysis is important. Sure, e-voting needs to be made secure, it needs to be auditable and so on. But unfortunately the opportunity for mandatory manual random audits was missed. So there will most definitely be "glitches" and the e-vote won't accurate reflect the count. It may or may not reflect a bias in favor of McCain. But I don't think, as I said, that the effect was large enough to impact on the exit polls in 2004, and therefore cannot have been large.

That's why I say that at this stage, the overwhelming priority needs to be to make sure that EVERYONE YOU KNOW that is eligible to vote is registered, knows when and where the vote is held, and what they need to do to maximise the chance of it being counted correctly (what to expect on screen, what the races are, what the format is, etc).

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