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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-04-08 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. ?
Are you asserting that the Kiev International Institute for Sociology, Razumkov Center, and/or Center for Social Monitoring are "International election monitoring organizations"?

So far you haven't even gotten to one, which is damn far from "universally." (It's not my impression that the outside groups that supported these exit polls count as international monitoring organizations, either.)

It's helpful, however, that you cite two Ukraine exit polls from the second run-off, one of which gave Yushchenko a 15.2-point margin, the other of which gave him a 19.7-point margin. The difference between those two exit polls is almost as large as the exit poll discrepancy in the United States. I believe that in the first run-off, the difference between the two exit polls was actually larger than the U.S. exit poll discrepancy. So when people cite Ukraine as evidence of exit poll accuracy, I have to wonder. (I'm not saying that the polls are "impertinent and irrelevant," just that obviously they aren't always accurate.)

Luckily, there was lots of evidence of election fraud in the first Ukraine run-off, and the election was overturned based on that evidence. Also, the difference between a 15-point margin and a 20-point margin isn't all that consequential.
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