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Reply #103: you are amazingly obtuse [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-23-08 05:21 AM
Response to Reply #100
103. you are amazingly obtuse
Certainly, from their standpoint, they blew the call, twice, and had to retract it both times. That isn't disputed, any more than the undervotes and overvotes are disputed. But you once again -- coincidentally, no doubt -- ignored the main point: no one made any call based on the exit poll data alone. That fact may have implications for your analysis, if you have an analysis. I can't tell, since so far you have refused to reveal it.

(There is a subtler sense in which making any call as early as they did was a blown call by definition -- but obviously we aren't ready for subtlety yet. Maybe in a post or two.)

"...somehow the actual vote was exactly like their blown call?"

Well, you are teetering toward actual substance there, for a change. What would we need to know in order to know whether "the actual vote" was "exactly like" their "blown call"?

Since you have steadfastly refused to make an argument, I am now reduced to guessing what your argument might have been, had you made one. Let's see how this goes. I have to make up a lot of stuff for you -- I apologize, I spent a lot of time trying to avoid it.

"The Florida exit poll sample indicated that Gore won with about 49% of the vote to 48% for Bush, with other candidates getting most of the rest of the vote. But the election results indicated that it was roughly 47/47, with 3% residual votes -- much higher in some counties. We can reconstruct that if the residual votes had been counted in accordance with voter intent, Gore would have won with about 49% of the vote to 48% for Bush. So, the exit polls revealed how many residual votes there were, and who they went for."

Is that, maybe, perhaps, something like the argument you would have made, if you had made an argument?

Perhaps you would like to refine the argument -- and then support it.
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