Reply #44: yeah, that's the logic

[OnTheOtherHand]

As you say, one shouldn't assume that (for instance) provisionals are particularly Democratic in one context, and perfectly representative in the other.

I'm hedging on the details because I've never vetted these "early" data, and I don't know exactly when they are from -- or, in the CA context, which absentees they do or don't include. I'm not confident that CA registrars are consistent in their reporting of absentee votes.

For what it's worth, it looks as if the "late" votes from CA gave Kerry about an 8.6% margin, so they were actually a bit more Republican than the "early" votes from CA, but of course more Democratic than the national average.