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Reply #147: Well, let me clarify: [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #142
147. Well, let me clarify:
I DON'T agree with your finding that there no manipulation in the 2004 election (if that is what you claim, and I apologize in advance if that is not what you meant).

It is certainly not what I meant and not what I have ever said.. I think there was very probably manipulation in the 2004 election, and I have spent a few hundred hours trying to uncover some of it. However what I found was evidence that contra-indicates the hypothesis that the manipulation was on a scale to account for the exit poll discrepancy (i.e. the theft of a Kerry margin equivalent to Bush's winning margin), nor even that of manipulation on a scale to account for Bush's popular vote win.

You did not find evidence with your particular parametric analysis. You may not have power in the data to detect the difference in such a test.

On the contrary, because of the large amount of power in the data, I was able to put tight confidence limits on the size of the effect.

Your finding DOES NOT MEAN that there was not a problem - only that your test was not able to detect the problem and reject the null.

Which means that the effect was either a) extraordinarily uniform, which no-one to my knowledge has claimed or b) much smaller than the theft of the popular vote. When you retain the null, as you know, the next step is to calculate the confidence limits. I went further, and explored the degree of uniformity of fraud one would have to hypothesise in order to account for the data in the presence of popular vote-over-turning election theft.

As for Ohio - I am not yet persuaded that Kerry would have won Ohio, and therefore the Electoral College vote, and therefore the presidency, on a level playing field, but I am damn sure the playing field was not level, there, or anywhere. Particularly New Mexico. I think Kerry probably won New Mexico.
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