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Reply #74: I don't think you are accurately representing the OP [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-16-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #46
74. I don't think you are accurately representing the OP
Edited on Sat Jun-16-07 05:02 PM by OnTheOtherHand
The fact that the official figures are completely nonsensical is however the main point of the OP.

Really? It hardly seems so to me. The OP argues at length that the exit poll figures are completely nonsensical. For instance:
This artifact of the NEPs weighting process is a dead letter that simply cant be delivered.... There was something very wrong with the NEP weighting process, specifically big city results.... The NEP reports a 66% increase in voter turnout in the big cities, from 9 million votes in 2000 to 15 million in 2006.... In addition to the analysis above, the 66% vote increase in the urban areas simply cant be true on the basis of actual reports of big city vote totals.... We now have a double indictment of the 2004 NEP.... How did the NEP get it so wrong on the urban vote?

Remarkably, the OP cites vote counts from several big cities and states, "They are the actual vote totals from the cities listed" (emphasis added). That is very far from arguing that the official figures are completely nonsensical.

This is a very fundamental distinction. Much confusion comes of not stating clearly how you believe the exit poll results relate to the official results, and in turn to the actual results.

Now, when you say, for instance, that the OP "SAYS THE RURAL VOTE FOR BUSH DECLINED WHICH IT DID," are you saying that it declined according to the exit poll table, to the official returns, and/or to your own view of what actually happened? I am skeptical that the rural vote for Bush declined, although without knowing the population figures for "rural," I certainly can't say one way or the other.

When you assert that Bush's "URBAN VOTE EXPLODED," is that according to the exit poll table, to the official returns, and/or to your own view?

If you do not state your central claims unambiguously, then, obviously, I have no way of knowing what they are. In all honesty, I am not certain that you know what they are.

If you are committed to the view that Bush's urban vote exploded in the official returns (through stuffing and/or shifting), then we can simply tally the official returns from the big cities and see whether it's true. Right?

If you're not committed to that view, then we appear only to be discussing how the table could be so wrong about the big-city vote share -- a question that Febble has addressed elsewhere.

Now I will see about answering your questions.

ETA: Oh, I'll go back and answer a bonus CAPITALIZED question.


No, it appears because I actually looked at the weights in the data file, which I assume you have yourself since it was available for over a year, and saw that the big-city weights are on average greater than 1. It's trivial to compute the average weights by precinct. If no one at Scoop has done this, then again, it's hard to avoid the inference that you actually aren't very interested in the data that you are purporting to describe.
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