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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-16-07 05:02 AM
Response to Reply #60
62. OK
The NEP National poll is a subset of the entire poll. That is why the precinct Ns by category are so small.

By "variance in poll-count discrepancies" I mean that the discrepancy between the poll and the count at precinct level varied. Some precincts had large pro-Bush discrepancies (count more pro-Bush than the poll). There were also precincts with large pro-Kerry discrepancies. Fraud would produce discrepancies such as these, so would a biased sample. If the OP is correct, and votes were padded in some places and not others, precincts with padded votes would have larger pro-Bush discrepancies than precincts than those without padding. They would also tend to show greater increases in Bush's vote-share (or smaller decreases). So the two measures - increase in Bush's vote share, and pro-Bush discrepancy - should be correlated. But they aren't.

If the Bush vote was systematically padded in urban areas, then we should see greater discrepancies in urban areas, AND these discrepancies should be associated with greater increase in Bush's vote share. That is what I looked for, and what I failed to find. There were rather greater discrepancies in urban than in rural area, but the increase was not associated with greater advantage to Bush, whichever way I sliced it, and I sliced it a lot of ways. There was some evidence that in urban areas, there were greater discrepancies associated with lever machines, which could be due to greater residual votes among Democratic voters. But it was strongly leveraged by New York. So you might argue that there was massive fraud on New York levers.

If you have to look somewhere, I'd look there. I do notice, however, that New Yorkers are not agitating to get rid of their lever machines.
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