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Reply #56: That is not true [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-16-07 03:56 AM
Response to Reply #54
56. That is not true
I do not "criticise for criticism's sake". You have no basis on which to make this assertion. You said you didn't understand my post, and accused me of being unclear. I tried to clarify it. If it hasn't added to the sum of your knowledge then I don't understand why you don't understand that it creates a problem for the inference made in the OP.

The OP is based on the weighted data, and I have explained at least some of the problems in making inferences from that heavily weighted data.

As I pointed out to eridani, there are only twenty or thirty big city precincts in the National sample (far fewer than in the full sample). You cannot make generalised inferences about turnout from such a small sample of precincts. It is, as the OP points out, very unlikely that turnout in cities would have increased by 66%. However, it is perfectly possible that it was up by 66% in the handful of precincts that made it into that small National sample of precincts. The MoE on that percentage would be extremely wide.
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