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Reply #51: I am aware of that [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-16-07 02:53 AM
Response to Reply #31
51. I am aware of that
I'm saying that given the extent of the reweighting required, the discrepancy between the weighted count and the official count is likely to be an artefact of the weighting process.

The pollsters do not have demographic info on the people who they think weren't in the poll and should have been. They can only upweight geographically. And even then, they do not know if their geographic sampling was representative. There are only going to be twenty or thirty urban precincts in the national poll. Fewer than one per state on average. Any clustering of the sample in one particular state is going to exert large leverage on a small sample.

In other words, there is no reason NOT to expect a discrepancy, given the extent of the reweighting and the small precinct sample numbers.
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