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Reply #92: TIA: The inferential national 7.3% vote-switch rate confirms your descriptive Ohio 6.15% rate. [View All]

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caruso Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-12-07 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #89
92. TIA: The inferential national 7.3% vote-switch rate confirms your descriptive Ohio 6.15% rate.
Edited on Mon Feb-12-07 12:08 PM by caruso
You should be welcoming my analysis.

You have shown that a descriptive study of Ohio ballots found a 6.15% vote switch. My inferential analysis essentially confirms that statistic.

The True Vote model determines there was a 7.3% switch of votes from Kerry to Bush nationally.

The input to the model consists of
1) FACTUAL 2000 and 2004 recorded data. There is ZERO MoE.

2) Census 2004 vote data.
The data shows that 125.7mm voted. The 3.4mm discrepancy to the recorded 122.3mm has been accounted for by Greg Palast. It is a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots which were never counted. The MoE was 0.30% for the 60,000 sample. The MoE is presented along with the data; it matches the theoretical MoE.

3) 2004 Voter turnout
I use 95% turnout as the base case for the turnout sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows that Kerry wins even when we assume that Bush 2000 voter turnout exceeds Gore turnout. So the MoE is not a factor as far as voter turnout is concerned.

4) 12:22am National Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" vote shares.
I use the NEP results as the base case for the sensitivity analysis. The MoE was 1% for the total national vote share and less than 2% for the individual shares. The analysis allows us to view scores of alternative vote share scenarios.

In conclusion, the 7.3% inferential national switched-vote rate matches up very nicely to the descriptive 6.15% Ohio rate.

You should appreciate the signifance of the fact that independent findings of switched-vote rates based on descriptive and inferential statistical analysis are in confirmation.
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