Reply #63: oh, brother

[OnTheOtherHand]

TIA, what is the contradiction between 48.5% approval and 14% of Gore voters voting for Bush? None whatsoever. Certainly not a mathematical impossibility. Once again, if you actually have an argument, please let us know what it is. Ah, could this be it?

"If I disapprove of the guy and I'm a Democrat, why would I vote for him, especially since he stole my vote in 2000."

TIA, are you kidding? are you really so confused? Do you really think that all Gore voters were Democrats who disapproved of Bush? Do you really think I said that Democrats who disapproved of Bush voted for him? Let's see, 14% of Gore voters, that would be something like 6% of the 2004 electorate. 48.5% + 6%... yeah, uh huh, clearly mathematically impossible. :shrug:

"...to assume an inverse correlation between the overall 48.5% Bush Election Day job rating (a clear rejection by the majority) and your tortured hypothesis that 14.6% of Gore voters defected to Bush."

TIA, do you have any clue what the words "inverse correlation" actually mean? I am beginning to think that you don't, which would explain why you are completely flummoxed by correlational evidence. If you do know what the words "inverse correlation" mean, would you care to revise this statement so that it isn't pseudoscientific gabbling? (Of course, I would encourage you to do that regardless.)

If you have any empirical evidence about the relationship between approval ratings and defection rates, this would be a good time to present it. Otherwise, you are blowing smoke. I've actually presented evidence to support a 14% Gore -> Bush defection rate. The evidence isn't conclusive, but it's pretty darn brassy of you to ignore it entirely based on, apparently, nothing whatsoever. Evidence, TIA, evidence. I've presented mine. Where is yours? Bring it on, sir. Fish or cut bait.

"If only 8% of Democrats approved of Bush, why would 15% vote for him?"

Again, what is wrong with you? Did I ever say that 15% of Democrats voted for Bush? (Actually, I don't think I ever said that 15% of any group voted for Bush, but let's try to keep it simple.) Do you really not understand the difference between Gore voters and Democrats? Is this some subtle thing that only political scientists know? I don't think so.

Once again, what is your argument that it is plausible for 8% of Gore voters to have voted for Bush, but implausible for 14% to have done so? Do you have any relevant evidence, or is it just what you feel?

Meanwhile, you still don't admit to misstating my position, nor do you admit to misusing the term "weights," nor do you admit to dismissing Febble's scatterplot without actually offering a substantive response to it, nor do you admit that according to the best-fit line a 48.5% approval rating predicts a likely victory for the incumbent, nor have you said anything about the NES except a stupid joke about the acronym, and so on. How long, TIA, how long? I know your admirers will let you get away with this stuff forever, but don't you ever get tired of running? Don't you ever wonder what you might learn if you stopped and looked?