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Reply #37: actually not [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-09-07 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. actually not
There are many (in fact infinite) permutations of values that would approximately match the official results, which is what I was actually challenged to do in that thread. (Maybe TIA has forgotten that, and that is why he keeps falsely claiming that I assume the official results are correct?)

But also, as I have pointed out repeatedly: (1) There is substantial evidence that poll respondents, including exit poll respondents, tend to overstate having voting for the previous winner; (2) in the 2000-2004 National Election Study, applying the 2004 weights, over 14% of people who reported voting in both elections, and voting for Gore in 2000, reported having voted for Bush in 2004.

"If the exit-polls weren't good science are you saying the polls were bad science?"

No. Perhaps if you read the post a few more times?

"as you are claiming, there were 13% of Gore voters who went bush and no bush voters who went Gore. That is simply implausible."

Well, that is simply inaccurate. Actually, what I suggest is that about twice as many Gore voters went Bush as Bush voters went Kerry. (Somewhere around 14%, versus somewhere around 7%.) Now, if you think that is "simply implausible," perhaps you could explain why. I find it plausible, among other reasons, because it actually happened in the NES panel. Whatever is, is possible.
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