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Reply #35: well, I think they are both wrong [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-09-07 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. well, I think they are both wrong
Edited on Fri Feb-09-07 05:28 PM by OnTheOtherHand
Yup, I grabbed a Scoop document that I thought was a leaked "early" result, but it's a late result. I don't see how it matters to the argument, however. You (TIA) have offered no basis for judging what level of defection is plausible or implausible. If you didn't have exit poll tables at all, how many Gore voters would you consider likely to have voted for Bush? and on what would you base that judgment?

Now, the rest of this is just bunk. First of all, here's what I wrote:
OK, here are some numbers on my laptop. Nothing sacred about them.

Currently working with 94.0% turnout among Gore2K and Bush2K voters, 97% among Other2K voters -- gives a decent number of DidNotVote2K voters under my other assumptions.
So: I've got

Gore 2000 46.275M 84.83% Kerry, 14.63% Bush
Bush 2000 45.782M 7.20% Kerry, 92.31% Bush
Other 2K 3.701M 65.90% Kerry, 18.10% Bush
DNV 2K 26.535M 52.90% Kerry, 46.50% Bush

which yields, within a few hundred, the official result of Bush winning by about 3 million votes.

Which you (TIA) render as, "ACCORDING TO YOU AND NO ONE ELSE: 1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004."

That leaves me with a Hobson's choice, TIA. Are you deliberately misrepresenting my position, or are you a bad reader? (Presumably you know that my conference paper supplies five other sets of possible proportions.)

Now, the problem is, you are citing the exit poll tables. As Febble already explained (and as I have, many times), that would work better if we could assume that people report their past votes accurately. My conference paper (extending my comments on the game thread) presents page after page of evidence that people do not report their past votes accurately, and you haven't laid a glove on it. So what on earth makes you think that you are winning this argument?

Really, TIA, it's hard for me to believe that you are even trying to be honest about this. How many times do we have to go through the argument before you at least acknowledge its existence, instead of making up this BS about "desperation"?

(EDIT to clarify attribution)
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