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Reply #29: TIA: Historical NEP data you are probably unaware of [View All]

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caruso Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-09-07 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #25
29. TIA: Historical NEP data you are probably unaware of
Edited on Fri Feb-09-07 11:19 AM by caruso
there were about 17 million more voters in 2004 than in 2000, and if only 95% of 2000 voters were alive in 2004, then that would make about 22 million voters in 2004 who didn't vote in 2000. And you are asking me where they came from. Well, I dunno. Why should I know? I expect some of them were young, first-time voters, and some of them were voters who don't vote very often.

You dunno? OK, lets find out.

First of all, there were 26 million voters who didnt vote in 2000, when you consider that 3.4 mm votes were uncounted according to the Census and which Greg Palast breaks down as a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional ballots. A majority (70-80%?) of these uncounted votes were Democratic. But I will disregard this point for the current discussion.

The TOTAL number of 2000 voters (including first-timers) who did not vote (DNV2k) comprised 17% of the total 2004 vote.

According to Mitofsky, Kerry won DNV2k by 57-41% in the 12:22am NEP.
First-time voters comprised 11% of the DNV2k 17% total.
Therefore, the remaining 6% were NOT first-time voters.

According to Mitofsky, Kerry won first-time voters by 55-43%.
Therefore, Kerry must have won 61% of DNV2k voters who were NOT first-timers.

Are you with me so far? Here is where things get interesting.

Lets look at presidential elections since 1972. In particular, first-time and others who did not vote in the prior election.

According to the 1972-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democratic candidate won the DNV category in EVERY election, except for the Nixon and Reagan landslides.

Here's the graph:

But thats not all.

In EVERY election since 1992, the Democrats won the VAST majority of first-time voters, so there has been a CUMULATIVE build-up of the Democratic base. Ruy Teixeira wrote about it in "The Emerging Democratic Majority" /

So how did Bush manage to win in 2004 after losing in 2000, if DNV2k (including first-timers) were solidly for Kerry?

2004F: 2pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)
2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)

...... 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04F 04P
Dem 42 54 44 40 49 48 56 54 54 57
Rep 58 46 48 59 49 30 32 41 45 41

Dem na na na 38 47 46 54 52 53 55
Rep na na na 61 51 32 34 43 46 43
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