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Reply #40: no, they haven't [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-15-06 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. no, they haven't
It's not clear exactly what Baiman is mad at Manjoo for not having addressed, but the fact remains: while the discrepancy in Ohio was outside a nominal margin of error, the margin in Ohio was not. Frankly, Baiman doesn't work on the exit polls, and his opinions about what the standard errors ought to be are entirely irrelevant.

The Freeman excerpt above uses a lot of words to say almost nothing; I can't tell whether that was accidental. Regardless, pages 22 of the "detailed 77-page report" shows that the exit polls did not "indicate" a Kerry victory in Nevada, New Mexico, or Ohio -- at least not in the parlance of any survey researcher I can think of. All three states were within the margin of error, too close to call. Call me nutty, but I bet Manjoo looked at page 22 at some point since the report came out in January 2005. Heck, I bet Freeman did too. He just chooses to ignore it, which makes his attributions of "ignorance" pretty darn brassy.
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