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Reply #81: CONFIRMATION of Election Model projections & Exit Polls:Kerry vote % ; win [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 04:12 PM
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81. CONFIRMATION of Election Model projections & Exit Polls:Kerry vote % ; win


CONFIRMATION: 
Comparison of Nov. 1, 2004 Election Model projections  
and the 12:22am State and National Exit Polls.

Two-party and total vote share:
Convert Election Model 2-party projections to include 3rd
parties 1% vote.
Deduct 0.5% from Kerry and 0.5% from Bush projected shares.

Assumption: Kerry won 67% of undecided voters.
All percentages are for Kerry.

ELECTION MODEL PROJECTIONS
Nov.1, 2004 

Final State Pre-election Polls
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation 
5000 trials     2pty% Total% WinProb
Wtd Average     51.38% 50.88% 99.44% (Kerry wins 4972/5000 EV
trials)

18 National Polls
Average         51.15  50.75  99.90 (assumes 0.73% MoE)
Difference       0.23%  0.13%  0.46% 

________________________________________________________

STATE EXIT POLLS  
12:22am Nov.3
73607 respondents

Projections    2pty% Total% WinProb
Gender Vote    50.52% 50.02% 99.71% (0.37% MoE)
Difference      0.86%  0.86%  0.27% (compared to Monte Carlo)

Probability of Kerry majority (Gender demographic)
Normal Distribution 
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5052,0.5,0.0037/1.96,TRUE)
Prob = 0.997061699 = 99.71%


NATIONAL EXIT POLL  
12:22am Nov.3
13047 respondents
Projections    2pty%  Total% WinProb
Gender Vote    51.30% 50.78% 99.46% (assumes 1.0% MOE)
Difference      0.15%  0.03%  0.44% (from 18 National Polls)

Probability of Kerry majority (Gender demographic)
Normal Distribution 
Prob = NORMDIST(0.513,0.5,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
Prob = 0.994582852 = 99.46%
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