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Reply #77: yes, Wang gets big points for isolating crucial assumptions: [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #76
77. yes, Wang gets big points for isolating crucial assumptions:

Note that all of these probabilites are conditional on the turnout and undecided voter assumptions being correct. The true probability is obtained by multiplying by a measure that is a function of whether my assumptions are accurate. The chance that I am wrong makes the true probability substantially lower than 100%! As Niels Bohr (and Yogi Berra) said, "Prediction is hard, especially of the future."

Wang is confusing when he refers to his "assumption of high turnout" -- rather, his assumption was that high turnout would favor Kerry. Surely in some places it did (and conceivably fraud conceals some of its actual impact). But as we've discussed, it was never empirically all that obvious that high turnout 'had to' favor Kerry. TIA's parallel leap was to prefer Registered Voter results to Likely Voter results, although he uses some of each.
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