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Reply #74: E/M, and the census [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-05 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #67
74. E/M, and the census
Some folks think that Mitofsky has been rigging exit polls for, umm, I guess decades. I guess for them, the disbanding of VNS is the least of the worries. (Dick Morris thought the exit polls were rigged to discourage Republicans; some folks have suggested instead that they were rigged to lull Democrats into complacency.) I honestly don't quite understand why anyone believes any of this. AFAICT, most public opinion researchers think that the exit polls were wrong, and a few think that the exit polls were basically right and the vote count was wrong; few see any need for the hypothesis that the exit polls (and/or pre-election polls) were rigged. Anything is possible, I guess.

I didn't notice the "Census 2004 Vote Survey" chestnut coming back. It's actually the Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). To quote a 1998 Census Bureau press release, "The CPS routinely overestimates voter turnout" (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/cb98-146.html ), so most of us don't waste much time trying to reconcile the figures. You may well be right that presidential undervoting accounts for part of the discrepancy; I would have to look more closely.
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