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Reply #61: well, TIA said two things, both rather odd [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-05 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. well, TIA said two things, both rather odd
TIA said that Kerry had a 99.99% (not 99.8%) probability of winning the popular vote. Let's not lowball things here, eh?

He also said that

If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.8% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 337-201 margin and 51.80% of the popular vote.

But he cannot have meant quite that. Surely he didn't mean that Kerry had a 99.8% chance of winning 51.80% of the popular vote. (And 0.2% chance of winning 51.81%?!) Those figures (51.80% for the Electoral Vote Simulation, 51.63% for the National Vote Projection) are just his mean expected values, surely.

Anyway, as I always say, if you disagree with TIA, you probably work for Diebold. (Actually, that is a freehand paraphrase, but real election reformers shouldn't get hung up on words.)
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