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Reply #60: Let me get this straight: [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-05 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #59
60. Let me get this straight:
Edited on Fri Dec-02-05 05:54 PM by Febble
your link to TIA's "final poll" says:

Election Model Projections

If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.8% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 337-201 margin and 51.80% of the popular vote. Kerry won 4990 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulated election trials.

Based on the average of eighteen national polls, the National Vote Projection model calculates that Kerry has a 99.99% probability of winning a popular vote majority with 51.63% of the vote.


So TIA was actually saying, on the eve of the election, that Kerry a 99.8 probability of winning the popular vote by nearly four percentage points?

Well, I have to confess, I am gobsmacked, as we say around here.

Every single pollster, including all those cited by TIA, was saying it was "too close to call" - and yet TIA thought that Kerry was a dead cert (99.8 is a dead cert in statistics) for a massive win of the popular vote?

(On edit: well I suppose nearly 4% isn't really massive, but that makes giving it a probability of 99.8% even more, well... odd.)
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