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Channel the TRUTH: Gore won. Kerry won. Naysayer heads will explode now [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-01-05 02:08 PM
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Channel the TRUTH: Gore won. Kerry won. Naysayer heads will explode now
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My brain is on fire, how much more of this can I take! autorank
channeling TruthIsAll This one says it all. GORE WON. KERRY WON.
RESTORATION NOW.

THERE IS NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS ON A STOLEN ELECTION.

And now for the TRUTH
:


In a recent Land Shark thread,
SHOULDA COULDA WOULDA; Why Election Fraud Naysayers R W-r-o-n-g---------
a PROMINENT naysayer came VERY CLOSE TO CONCEDING.

.....................................................................
"So I would argue that the Totality of the Evidence at present adds up to this:
1. The election was corrupt.
2. Democrats were the net losers from the corruption.
3. Voter (and vote) suppression remains a key problem, and may have cost Kerry Ohio.
4. Kerry probably lost the popular vote.
5. But we do not know for sure who actually won either the popular or the electoral vote, and this insupportable (sic.)"
.....................................................................

The naysayser confirms the corruption in points 1,2,3.
But still keeps from going all the way in points 4 and 5.

Even though all available evidence says otherwise.
Bush did NOT win the popular vote.
Kerry did. Easily.
Both the electoral AND popular vote.

Well, the naysayer is in Good Company.
Even Kerry won't admit that he won.

So let's summarize some important FACTS in this post in the hope that some of these holdout naysayers and democratic politicians get back to reality. Deep inside, they know that's where they should be (Ms. Kerry and Ms. Edwards must be very frustrated). But individual considerations keep them in public denial, while their heads are exploding as more and more information on the fraud surfaces every day.

Why don't they just read the GAO report?
Or scan the EIRS database?
Are they too busy trying to bring democracy to Iraq?
What about bringing democracy back here at home?
Don't we count?

Al Gore was ELECTED in 2000.
It was not just stolen from him.
It was stolen from US.
But at least Al fought.

John Kerry was ELECTED in 2004.
It was not just stolen from him.
It was stolen from US.
John, we hardly knew 'ye.

I want Al back where he belongs.
In OUR House.


TIME FOR SOME FACTS:

The naysayers continue their relentless attempts to mask the overwhelming evidence provided by confirmation of hundreds of pre=election and exit polls:
1) Pre-election state. Total sample: 50 polls* 600 = 30,000
2) Pre-election national. Total Sample: 18 polls *1500 = 27,000
3) Pre-election 48.5% Bush approval. Total: 11 polls*1000 = 11,000
4) 12:22am state exit polls: 73,600 respondents
5) 12:22am national exit poll: 13,047 respondents

And to this we must add have all the massive documented evidence of vote miscounts:
OH, FL, PA, NV, NM, VA, NC, MN, IA, WI, MO, NY


Were ALL these pre and post-election polls BIASED?
They ALL confirm that Bush lost.
What is it about these polls that is so difficult to understand?


Where is the evidence that the exit polls were biased?
Was it shy Bush voters (rBr)?
Debunked in NEP by Mitofksky 43%Bush/37% Gore?

Was it early Kerry voters?
Debunked. View the time line Kerry led at 4pm, 7:33pm, 12:22am

Was it early women voters?
Debunked.
Female vote share
4pm: 58%, 7:33pm: 54%, 12:22am: 54%, 1:25pm 54%

Was it False Gore voter recall?
Ridiculous on its face.
Bush voters recall who they voted for...
Gore voters suffer from Alzheimer's?

Was it Bad weather early in the day keeping Bush voters home?
Right.
Breaking News! Republicans buy umbrellas at Walmart.

Was it inexperienced pollsters?
Mitofsky trained them. Who is better qualified?

Was it the exit poll "cluster effect"?
Do I hear 20%? 30%? 50%?
Ok, enter your "design effect" into the Interactive Election Model.
Let's see how many states will deviate beyond the MoE for Bush.
The model will calculate the probabilities.
Maybe not 1 in 19 trillion (16 exceeding MoE), but still astronomical.

And how does one explain 30% poll deviations in the Ohio 2005 election?
How much evidence is necessary to prove the DRE fix?
Were the pre-election polls biased, as well?
Naysayers can't blame it on "cluster effect".
Or bad weather.
Or shy Bush voters.
Or Gore voter Faulty Recall.
Or untrained pollsters.
These were PRE-ELECTION POLLS.

For naysayers to say that they wanted a Kerry win is a canard.
They claim to be Democrats or Indies searching for the truth.
To prevent fraud in the NEXT election.
As if THAT gives them credibility.

They want to have it both ways.
Deny that Kerry won and that the polls were right.
Yet at the same time claim that they wanted him to win.
Naysayer allegiance to Mitofsky is obvious.

They say the math is correct.
No argument there.
But they don't agree with the assumptions.
What assumptions?

That pre-election polls favored Kerry?
I can prove it. Go to pollingreport.com

That undecided voters went for Kerry by almost 2-1?
That new voters went to Kerry by 3-2?
That Nader voters went to Kerry by 4-1?
See the National Exit Poll time lines.


That the 43/37% Bush/Gore voter share of the 2004 vote was impossible?
It took a long time for the naysayers to agree.
After all, even they would not claim Bush voter immortality.

That the Final Exit Poll must be wrong?
Well, to match the vote, it applied fictitious weightings.
That's a no-brainer.

That all other Final demographics/vote shares must be wrong, as well?
Well, that's just simple logic.
If A = FALSE
and A = B
then B = FALSE
Do I hear heads exploding?
Or is it just another terror alert?

That Kerry's Gender share was manipulated?
It went from 54% at 12:22am to 51% at 1:25pm.
Was it a massive sex change in 12 hours?
Christine Jorgensen never owned a computer back in 1952.

That the Party ID split was manipulated?
From 38 Dem/35 Rep to 37/37.
Was it Massive Fundie conversions in those 12 hours.

That the Census 2004 Vote Survey was wrong?
According to the Census, 125.7 million voted in 2004.
That's 3.4mm more than the recorded 122.3 million.
The Census Gender demographic MoE is 0.30%.
Should we believe the 122.3mm recorded vote?
The Final Exit Poll has a 1.0% MoE, according to Mitofsky.

That millions of votes are spoiled in every election?
Intentional or innocent spoilage?
Does it matter?

That the trend in Kerry/Bush response (alpha) disproves rBr?
The ratio declines from 1.50 in High Bush precincts to 1.0 in High Kerry.
USCV proved rBr was a myth using simulation.
I confirmed the USCV using the Exit Poll Response Optimizer.

That Bush job approval on election day 2004 was not 48.5%?
That's an 11-poll average.
I can prove it.
You can look it up at pollingreport.com.
The combined MoE (11000 sample) is approx. 1.0%.

That there is no way Bush could overcome 48.5% approval?
Oh, well there is one.
He could steal it.


That the Ohio exit poll showed Kerry the 52-48 winner?
Of the 49 exit poll precincts:
36 deviated from Kerry to Bush,
10 from Bush to Kerry,
3 were unchanged.

That if Kerry won Ohio, he must have done better nationally?
Check the record books.
Ohio always LAGS the national Democratic vote.
Naysayers agree there was fraud in Ohio

But what about the other states?
NM, NV, FL, NC, NY, MN, etc
..

That the 12:22am state and national exit polls each
confirming a Kerry victory is not believable?
Well, forty-two of 50 states deviated to Bush.
That's 1 in 2 million odds.

That 50 state exit polls mirror 49 Ohio exit poll precincts?
Just a coincidence?

Move along. Nothing to see here.
Take a trip to Brazile, Donna.

That the 9% disparity between the voting shares of Florida optiscans and DREs is virtually impossible?
Dem/Rep registrations were essentially equal in Optiscan and DRE counties.

That sixteen of 50 states deviated beyond the MoE for Bush, none for Kerry?
The probability of that is 1 in 19 trillion.

That ALL 22 Eastern Time Zone states deviated from Kerry to Bush?
1 in 4 million.


That eighty-six of 88 documented touch screens switched Kerry votes to Bush?
See the EIRS database.
Do the math.
1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

THOSE ARE FACTS, NOT ASSUMPTIONS.

Take a look at the graph below.
It shows a time line of pre-election and post election polls.

Naysayers claim the "evidence" shows that Bush won the popular vote.
I ask, what evidence?

If Kerry won the popular vote, doesn't that mean the exit polls (state and national (12:22am) were therefore close to the truth?

Except, that is, for the 1:25pm Final National Poll
We know this one is pure, unadulterated BS. Why?
Look at the How Voted in 2000 demographic.
Focus on the 43%/37% Bush/Gore weights.
They are mathematically IMPOSSIBLE.

Here's the PROOF:
Bush got 50.45 million votes in 2000.
That's 41.25% of the 122.3mm who voted in 2004.
But 3.5% of them died, according to annual U.S. mortality rates (0.87%).
Therefore, AT MOST, 48.7mm of Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004.
That's 39.8% of the 122.3mm total.

THE BOTTOM LINE:
Assuming REALISTIC, PLAUSIBLE, EQUAL weightings for Bush and Gore voters,
KERRY WINS EASILY, EVEN IF FINAL EXIT POLL PERCENTAGES,
WHICH WERE BIASED IN FAVOR OF BUSH, ARE USED.
PERIOD.
CASE CLOSED.
FINITO.
THE SMOKING GUN.
QUERE MAS?


Once again, I challenge the naysayers to a real-time debate using the Interactive Election model.

Let's begin where the DU "Game" thread abruptly ended:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

In the "Game", the naysayers claimed that Bush won 15% of Gore voters.
And that Kerry won only 52% of those who did not vote in 2000.

Can they ever come up with a plausible Bush win scenario?
I doubt it.

Note to Land Shark:
The TOTALITY of pre-election and exit poll data provide SOLID CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE that the election was stolen.
The NUMBERS have been silently screaming for a year.

The fact that ONE YEAR LATER, there's strong DOUBT about who really won,
should be sufficient to convince the public that something must be done ASAP to restore our democracy.


Election Model: www.truthisall.net

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