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Reply #101: We agree and a final channel.... [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-25-05 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #95
101. We agree and a final channel....
...like Frank Sinatra's "retirement tour" (there were several, each a success!). I respond on the Ohio phenomenon at the post specifically addressing that.

btw, I, personally, would very much like to see your response to the election model opportunity. I'm tempted to use the Cadrinals and Galileo analogy but even I admit, that would not be fair (although despite the ambivalent attitute of The Church on science, it has recently "walked tall" in rejecting "intelligent (sic) design" ;)

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TIA:
SO I ASKED THE NAYSAYERS TO COME UP WITH ANOTHER SCENARIO.
YOU ARE WELCOME TO DOWNLOAD MY EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL.
IT'S FREE.
BUT NO ONE TOOK ME UP ON THE OFFER.

Febble:
No, because, I don't accept the assumptions underlying the model.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------

You didn't think I'd let you off so quickly with THAT one, did you?
I ask you: what assumptions?
Be specific, please.

IS IT THE 18 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS?
I make only ONE assumption: the undecided vote.
Do you have a problem with that?

Check out the National Exit Poll's "When Voted" demographic.
It has Kerry winning 60% of the late undecided.
Go ahead. Run the model.
Try whatever assumptions you wish.

IS IT THE 50 PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS?
I make only ONE assumption: the undecided vote.
Do you have a problem with that?

IS IT THE 50 STATE EXIT POLLS?
There is just one input assumption: the "cluster" effect.
This only effects the probability of exceeding the MoE.
Do you take issue with that?
Then go ahead. Run the model.
Try whatever assumptions you wish.

IS IT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL?
There is just one input assumption: the "cluster" effect.
This only effects the probability of exceeding the MoE.
Do you take issue with that?
Then go ahead. Run the model.
Try whatever assumptions you wish.

I use the 12:22am timeline of state and national exit poll data.
Do you have a problem with that?
Or would you prefer the 1:25pm Final National,
which was matched to the vote count?
Fine but there is ONE restriction which you MUST adhere to:

For Bush/Gore weights in the "How Voted in 2000" demographic:
THE ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUSH SHARE OF 2004 VOTERS IS 39.8%.
That's not my restriction; it's the Almighty's.
Bush 2000 voters who died could not have voted in 2004.
Would you stipulate to that?

Ok,
Ready.
Set.
Go.

Assume the pose.
Run the model.
Play what-if with any of the demographic categories.

THIS IS THE CHALLENGE:
COME UP WITH ONE PLAUSIBLE SCEANARIO OF A BUSH WIN

Consider real numbers, not non-response.
Consider feasibility, not wishful thinking.
Consider actual scenarios, not abstract generalities.
Consider probabilities, not intelligent design.

Is that fair enough?

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