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Reply #95: Except that vote-switching [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-25-05 03:16 AM
Response to Reply #93
95. Except that vote-switching
is more likely to show up in a swing-shift correlation - and there wasn't a significant swing-shift correlation in Ohio. However, there is probably still room for a bit of it in the statistical noise (which is why I've included a bit in my list).

Regarding the referendum in Ohio: I agree it it needs investigation. I've read a number of posts on DU that have argued that it is explicable in terms of the campaign, the timeline of the polls and the wording of the questions on the ballot (which apparently differed from the the question in the polls), and MysteryPollster has an extensive piece here:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/11/columbus_di...

However, given the culture of corruption (and laxity) in Ohio, I wouldn't want to rule out fraud either.

My bottom line is: if you have to rely on polls as the only check on the integrity of your electoral system then your democracy is in Deep Deep Trouble.
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