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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-24-05 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #81
85. Sorry
I'm afraid I last composed a sentence in Latin 40 years ago. Something about Caesar.

And what little Greek I have is not ancient.

But if you are going to mug me elsewhere in cyberspace, you will have to bear with responses in English here. So will TIA.

As for "proving" that redshift and swing will be correlated if there is fraud - this is a prediction not a proof. It's a testable hypothesis. If one factor causes two effects, you would expect those two effects to be correlated. If exposure to sun causes both tanning and skin cancer, you'd expect incidence of tan and skin cancer rates to be correlated. If fraud causes both swing and redshift, you'd expect swing and redshift to be correlated. If they were, it would be fairly strong evidence that the same factor (fraud) caused both. Unfortunately they are not.

What this means is that if fraud caused both, its relationship with each was not independent of the other, and it is remarkably difficult to devise any plausible fraud mechanism that would not result in a swing-shift correlation. I have tried. I have encouraged others to try.

No mugging intended. I am merely trying to teach, and learn from, my enemies. Except that I wish we weren't enemies. It seems to me that we are all concerned with the same issue - fixing America's broken democracy. I just happen to think that the emphasis on an aspect of the breakage for which there is least (and possibly counter-) evidence is not helpful, and potentially harmful.


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