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Reply #56: The Law of Large Numbers. Central Limit Theorum. [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-22-05 11:00 PM
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56. The Law of Large Numbers. Central Limit Theorum.
(Psychic hotline activated, message from the Truth Is All I get)

The Law of Large Numbers.
The Central Limit theorem.

Final Pre-election polls.
50 state
18 national

no rBr
no faulty recall
no poll workers
no long lines
no Mitofsky
no cluster

but ...
there are many pollsters
all scientific
some corporate (CBS, Gallup, FOX, ABC, NBC, AP, etc.)
some independent (Zogby, Harris, Economist, etc.)

Who are you to say their efforts are for naught?
After all, Mitofsky's exit polls confirm the pre-election pollsters.
And Mitofsky knows how to poll.
Doesn't he?
He's been doing it for 30 years.
All over the world.
Makes a good living, too.
He can afford to pay lots of consultants.

Why don't you contact these pollsters and tell them that,
based on your massive evidence of non-response bias,
they're no longer relevant?

That their services are no longer necessary.
Just fire them all.
And that includes Mitofsky.
That's what the Republicans want, don't they?

No more exit polls.
They just mislead voters into believing the elections are fixed.
We can't have that, can we?

So tell E-M and all the rest to exit the business.
What good are they?

No more damn exit polls.
Because what they're doing is just an exercise in futility.
They're polling the wrong people.
They should be polling the non-responders.
And even then, naysayers like you would disagree.

Whose idea was it to do a poll first, anyway?

Go ahead.
Set them straight.
You're the expert.
You have many years of experience in the field.
You know all about U.S. elections from overseas.
You know a lot more about polling than
Harris or Zogby or ARG or Gallup or SUSA or...

They should all just listen to you from now on.
And get out of the business.

Apparently, the Law of Large Numbers no longer applies.
It's the pollsters' bedrock.
Without it, they're out of business.
And that applies to all other statistical researchers.

Why don't we listen to Bush?
Let's replace Probability and Statistics with...
Intelligent Design 101.


FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS

PRESS F9 TO SIMULATE 200 ELECTION TRIALS

Undecided vote
Total Poll Total Weighted Average 67% 33%
Sample Sample MoE KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH
Date 26961 Group 0.60% 47.55 47.30 50.43 48.57

1-Nov Marist 1166 LV 2.87% 50 49 48.97 50.03
1-Nov Econom 2903 RV 1.82% 50 47 50.77 48.23
1-Nov TIPP 1284 LV 2.73% 44 47 50.66 48.34
1-Nov CBS 1125 RV 2.92% 47 48 52.18 46.82
1-Nov Harris 1509 LV 2.52% 48 49 49.17 49.83

31-Oct Zogby 1200 LV 2.83% 47 48 48.48 50.52
31-Oct FOX 1400 RV 2.62% 48 45 52.44 46.56
31-Oct DemCorp 1018 LV 3.07% 48 47 49.65 49.35
31-Oct Gallup 1866 RV 2.27% 48 46 51.05 47.95
31-Oct NBC 1014 LV 3.08% 47 48 53.34 45.66

31-Oct ABC 3511 RV 1.65% 47 48 49.27 49.73
30-Oct ARG 1258 LV 2.76% 49 48 50.85 48.15
30-Oct Pew 2408 RV 2.00% 46 45 51.56 47.44
29-Oct News 1005 RV 3.09% 44 48 47.27 51.73
26-Oct ICR 817 RV 3.43% 48 48 50.87 48.13

24-Oct LAT 1698 RV 2.38% 48 47 50.76 48.24
21-Oct Time 803 LV 3.46% 46 51 46.27 52.73
20-Oct AP 976 LV 3.14% 49 46 53.48 45.52


18 Poll Summary:
Kerry won 9, Bush 8, 1 tie
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
and 4 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls

Probability of Vote Deviation from poll:
Kerry:50.43% to 48.31%: 1 in 502,718mm
Bush: 48.57% to 50.77%: 1 in 3,904,291mm



Polling Data Source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf


BUSH KERRY

Zogby Poll
1 LV 48 47 10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.9.
Bush Kerry Nader Other
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 4

2 LV 49 50 Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE 3).
Bush Kerry Unsure
11/1/2004 49 50 1


3 RV 47 50 Economist YouGov 2903 total; MoE +/-2%
10/30-11/01
Bush Kerry
45 49

4 LV 47 44 TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE 2.8.
Bush Kerry
10/30 - 11/1/04 47 44
5 RV 48 47 CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.
Bush/ Kerry/
Cheney Edwards
10/29 - 11/1/04 48 47

6 LV 49 48 The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters nationwide who express a preference. MoE 2.5.
Bush Kerry Nader Other (vol.)
10/29 - 11/1/04 49 48 2 1

7 RV 45 48 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE 3).
George John Other Wouldn't
W. Bush Kerry Not Sure Vote (vol.)
10/30-31/04 45 48 7 -

8 LV 47 48 Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.
George John Ralph Other Unsure
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.)
10/29-31/04 47 48 1 1 3

9 RV 46 48 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other None/
Cheney Edwards Camejo (vol.) Unsure
10/29-31/04 46 48 1 1 4

10 LV 48 47 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards Camejo Other (vol.)
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 2 2

11 RV 48 47 ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ No
Cheney Edwards Camejo Wouldn't Opinion
ABC News Tracking Poll
10/28-31/04 48 47 1 2 2


12 LV 48 49 American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE 2.8).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Unsure
48 49 3
13 RV 45 46 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE 2.5).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Unsure
10/27-30/04 45 46 1 8

14 RV 48 44 Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4); 882 likely voters (MoE 4).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other (vol.)/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Undecided
10/27-29/04 48 44 1 7
15 RV 48 48 ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE 3.6).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other Neither Unsure
Cheney Edwards (vol.) (vol.)
10/22-26/04 48 48 - 1 4

16 RV 47 48 Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 881 likely voters (MoE 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards
10/21-24/04 47 48 5

17 LV 51 46 Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 803 likely voters (MoE 4).
Bush Kerry Nader Unsure
10/19-21/04 51 46 2 1
.
18 LV 46 49 Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 976 likely voters (MoE 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo None (vol.)/
10/18-20/04 46 49 2 3





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