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Reply #33: Do I really have to reply? [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-22-05 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
33. Do I really have to reply?
As one TIA's earliest 'litmus' naysayers still on this board, I've been basking in the smug satisfaction that what I suggested long ago as to how the election fraudently fell to Bush is the only viable hypothesis still standing (sorry, landshark).

The weakness here is that TIA confuses his fruit when he needs to use apples. Each estimate is its own, has its own methodology and problems, and stands unique in comparison to another estimate. You cannot combine and weight them to obtain an inference that Bush stole the election, but at best are descriptive, and require further evaluation and analysis, something TIA is loathe to do, since once one undertakes this step, the ignorance of what is good or bad sampling design, of what may be unintended bias can make the case that yes, these polls have sufficient error to where one cannot discriminate whether Kerry won or not.

Secondly, these are not all the polls taken, but those selected by TIA for their utility in supporting his preconcieved notion of who would win. As a pre-election poll junkie, my favorite site was http://www.electoral-vote.com /; take a look at the map (and commentaries!) just prior to the election:http://www.electoral-vote.com/2004/nov/nov02.html . That should refresh some memories, and hopefully not re-open any old wounds.

Mike
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