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Reply #23: ...unlikely to be due to chance. [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-22-05 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. ...unlikely to be due to chance.
Yes. You are absolutely right. It was not due to chance. No-one, least of all Mitofsky disputes that.

The question is: what was it due to? Something was biased. It was either the count or the poll.

The evidence IMO to date strongly favours the poll, although I would agree that the data leave room for enough fraud to swing Ohio (with a following wind and, of course, voter suppression).

The MoE only tells you the margin of error due to random sampling. It tells you absolutely nothing about non-sampling error. Sources of non-sampling in surveys include non-response bias and sampling bias. They are challenging methodological problems that are remarkably hard to eliminate, and you can rarely be sure you have done so, certainly not if your response rate is only around 50%.
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