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Reply #209: it's open to interpretation [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-24-05 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #191
209. it's open to interpretation
I think the exit poll number is quite misleading, if I am right about the possible magnitude of false recall -- but there is plenty of room for further analysis on that. (I would like to look at some older exit polls, at some point. Maybe the bug will catch you?)

From my current POV, the panel number is sort of the only number, and I didn't mess with it _too_ much -- but I was pledged to match the exact result without allowing any difference in turnout between Bush 2K and Gore 2K voters (and I chose not to tinker with a lot of other parameters, because I knew I would be in enough trouble presenting this scenario as it was). I do think it would be hard to argue that the 14.6% figure is downright implausible because the panel number is 12.9 -- unless there is a reason why the panel number is biased upwards, which could be the case.

Umm, there ought to be some way to import the ASCII data into R -- or maybe you can even use an Excel filter, gack. Many variations on that theme. Depends on what you like to use. Meanwhile, feel free to ask any specifics I should run. (Please PM to be sure -- I may be intermittent on the board.) Come to think of it, I may even be able to supply you with your data format of choice. You would still need to mess with the codebook -- filter out missing values so you don't get garbage.
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