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Reply #177: Two small corrections: [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-24-05 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #171
177. Two small corrections:
Edited on Wed Aug-24-05 09:51 AM by Febble

Re Mystery Pollster, aka Mark Blumenthal, is a partner in the polling firm Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal.

A person who is a partner in a polling firm is generally considered to have polling expertise.

Second: I don't think either OTOH or I have "deserted rBr", although rBr is not my favored description of the hypothesis. My own view is that some form of sampling/response bias was probably a substantial contributor to the exit poll discrepancy, although I do not rule out a contribution from fraud.

The theory put forward in this thread by OTOH (and by myself, earlier) is simply a hypothesis regarding a mechanism by which the "final table" with its apparently "impossible" Gore/Bush proportions could be reconciled with a red shift that was largely due to sampling/response bias.

Otherwise, for myself, I would confirm your timeline, although not the implied causal sequence. And because I dispute the causal sequence I dispute the allegation of bias. I changed my views because I was unbiased (i.e. not committed to a fraud hypothesis come-what-may) not because I was biased. And certainly not because I did work for Mitofsky. The timeline was, as you correctly report, the other way round. My paper resulted in my leaving USCV; my paper subsequently induced Mitofsky firstly to reanalyse the data, and later to commission further analyses from me.

So yes, in your words (elsewhere), I am a NAYSAYER to the case that the exit poll evidence is unambiguous evidence of massive electoral fraud. However I am not by any means a naysayer to efforts to investigate the inequities and illegalities of the 2004 election or to bring about fair, secure, auditable elections in the US. It is why I got involved in the first place.

On edit: just noticed your reference to the religious beliefs of one of my colleagues. This is quite irrelevant and quite unacceptable. I suggest you edit this if there is time.
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