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Reply #49: is this a "serve"? [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-22-05 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #45
49. is this a "serve"?
OK, here are some numbers on my laptop. Nothing sacred about them.

Currently working with 94.0% turnout among Gore2K and Bush2K voters, 97% among Other2K voters -- gives a decent number of DidNotVote2K voters under my other assumptions.

So: I've got

Gore 2000 46.275M 84.83% Kerry, 14.63% Bush
Bush 2000 45.782M 7.20% Kerry, 92.31% Bush
Other 2K 3.701M 65.90% Kerry, 18.10% Bush
DNV 2K 26.535M 52.90% Kerry, 46.50% Bush

which yields, within a few hundred, the official result of Bush winning by about 3 million votes.

Then downstream I have a pro-Kerry "response bias" on the order of 1.12 to give Kerry a 3% margin in the national exit poll.

I further have some estimates, inspired by the 2000-04 NES panel, of false recall. For instance, I observe that among panel participants who said in 2000 that they had voted for Gore, 7.3% said in 2004 that they had voted for Bush in 2000. In this group, 26% said they voted for Kerry, and 65% said they voted for Bush. The sample is small, but hey, it's a starting place, so I use those proportions. (I similarly assume, also based on the panel, that 1.6% of Bush2K voters false-recall themselves as Gore2K voters, and this group breaks 95/5 for Kerry. In the actual panel, there were only 5 such people, and they all voted for Kerry.)

I end up with the final results for the unweighted exit poll:

reported Gore2K voters, 38.8%, of whom 90.3% Kerry, 9.2% Bush
reported Bush2K voters, 40.2%, of whom 9.3% Kerry, 90.3% Bush
reported Oth2K voters, 3.3%, of whom 69.2% Kerry, 17.0% Bush
reported DNV2K voters, 17.6%, of whom 56.1% Kerry, 43.2% Bush

all reasonably close to the actual unweighted exit poll results -- I am low on reported DNV2K voters (18.4% in the actual unweighted results). The actual unweighted results show Bush2K voters outnumbering Gore2K voters by only about 1.1%. (But, by assumption, Kerry voters -- many of whom were Gore2K voters -- are overrepresented in the exit poll. Downweighting the Kerry voters to compensate should yield a reported Bush2K/Gore2K split close to the 43/37 margin in the official results.)
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