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Reply #37: Objection m'lud! [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-22-05 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #28
37. Objection m'lud!
Wrong analogy.

"Your honour, this ruler is not evidence, because it was deliberately constructed of elastic material so that it could be re-calibrated to fit as required"

Exhibit A:

FAQ on E-M site (already posted once on this thread)

How are projections made?

Projections are based on models that use votes from three (3) different sources -- exit poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election officials from the sample precincts, and tabulations of votes by county. The models make estimates from all these vote reports. The models also indicate the likely error in the estimates. The best model estimate may be used to make a projection if it passes a series of tests.

(again, my bold)

If you want to run an exit poll as an auditing tool, it needs to be constructed rather differently (and rather more expensively). This one submitted as evidence was designed to enable the networks to "call" the states.

Also from the E-M FAQ:

When will we know who is elected President?
Edison/Mitofsky will add together the electoral votes won by each candidate for states that have completed their voting and closed their polls. When one candidate has a majority, that is, 270 electoral votes, a winner will be announced. The members of NEP will announce the result when their analysts affirm an electoral vote majority. This may be earlier or later than the Edison/Mitofsky announcement to the members.

For a paper addressing questions on how exit polls should be designed in order to form an effective part of an election audit see here: /

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