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Reply #33: That's interesting, TIA [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-22-05 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. That's interesting, TIA
I never quite got your point about the 613 before.

But looky here:

You argue that

"The fact that the final 613 were added to the pristine 13047 just buttresses the case. It was all a big scam to fool the public. They could not base the final on the 13047 respondents, could they? They had to make it appear that more were interviewed to better match the vote count."

This makes no sense to me. No-one with an ounce of numerical nouse is going to believe that 613 respondents could have swung the numbers by 5+ points. As Bill says, they would virtually all have had to be Bush voters, and if so, the MoE would be as big as the Grand Canyon. But more to the point, no scam was required. It said quite clearly in the FAQ on the website:

How are projections made?

Projections are based on models that use votes from three (3) different sources -- exit poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election officials from the sample precincts, and tabulations of votes by county. The models make estimates from all these vote reports. The models also indicate the likely error in the estimates. The best model estimate may be used to make a projection if it passes a series of tests.

(my bold)

So the obvious answer to any question regarding the final numbers is to refer to the FAQ - it changed because the precint vote returns and county tabulations had started to come in.

Obviously, if these were fraudulent, the thing will swing wildly at this point. As it will also do if the poll was strongly biased.

But no scam is required to account for the 613.

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