Reply #30: You are confused. Exit polls are virtually NEVER off by more than 1%.

[TruthIsAll]

My final model projection had it 51-48 Kerry. It was based on final state polls with the assumption that the bulk of the undecided would go to Kerry). The pollsters said the race was tied, but they also expected the undecided would go to Kerry.

My projections just extrapolated 3 out of the 4 the undecided to their final 48-48 tie. No rocket science, no convoluted economteric model. Undecideds always go to the challenger - and they did this time, also.

Eventually, it will become common knowledge that Bush stole MILLIONS of votes. It's just as easy to steal millions as it is to steal thousands.

Two professors (one former MIT, the other currently at Univ. of Penn.) have published probabilities comparable to mine. Check the threads.