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Response Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-29-05 07:27 PM
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Response Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls
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Edited on Fri Jul-29-05 08:23 PM by TruthIsAll
The following Exit Poll Optimizer analysis is based on
individual state exit poll response rates, recorded votes and
polling percentages. Prior optimizer analyses was based on
1250 precincts categorized according to precinct partisanship.

The primary objective in this analysis is to determine if
Kerry/Bush response ratios (K/B) for individual states
(categorized in five High Bush to High Kerry groups) matched
the prior precinct based optimizer analysis which produced
decreasing K/B ratios from High Bush to High Kerry precincts. 

The state optimizer produced similar results: state
partisanship K/B ratios closely matched the corresponding
precinct partisanship ratios.

States with High K/B ratios: OH, FL, TX, CA, GA, TN, IN


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER														
7/29/05 7:05 PM														
														
Given: 										
1- Bush 2-party vote (51.24%)	
2- State exit poll response	
3- State exit poll deviation 														
														
Determine:			
1- Kerry exit poll - aggregate and state	
2- K/B (alpha) - aggregate and state
3- Summary group totals, averages and medians
		
	2-PTY	TOTAL	2-PTY	TOTAL										
	PCT	COUNT	VOTE	PCT										
Kerry 	48.76%	48.28%	59,028	48.28%										
Bush	51.24%	50.73%	62,028	50.73%										
Total	100.0%	121,056	 122,267										
														
EXIT POLL														
Kerry 	50.51%	50.01%	61,141	50.01%										
Diff	-1.75%	-1.73%	-2,113	-1.73%										
Diff/K	-3.46%	-3.46%	-3.46%	-3.46%										
														
Bush	49.49%	49.00%	59,915	49.00%										
Diff	1.75%	1.73%	2,113	1.73%										
Diff/B	3.53%	3.53%	3.53%	3.53%										
														
PROBABILITY of 1.75% discrepancy between exit poll and vote:
  1 in 261,578,650,599

(based on 0.5% MoE for 73,607 respondents).											
														
PARTISAN ALPHA								
Lean Kerry	1.023		NJ-DC
Bush/Even	1.168		UT-OR											
														
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)														
Response:	53.28%	
K/B alpha:	1.120													
														
PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS
Kerry 	46.86%
Bush	53.14%													
														
State	Votes	RESP.	K/B	K/50B	Kvote	Pct	Bvote	Pct	Kpoll	Pct	Bpoll	Pct	Dev	Calc
														
HIGH BUSH														
UT	905	59.6%	1.26	63.2	241	26.7%	664	73.3%	271	29.9%	634	70.1%	-30	-6.6%
WY	238	66.0%	1.05	52.3	71	29.7%	168	70.3%	76	32.1%	162	67.9%	-6	-4.8%
ID	590	63.2%	1.12	55.9	181	30.7%	409	69.3%	197	33.3%	394	66.7%	-16	-5.3%
NE	767	66.5%	1.12	56.0	254	33.2%	513	66.8%	280	36.5%	487	63.5%	-26	-6.8%
OK	1,464	53.2%	1.37	68.7	504	34.4%	960	65.6%	508	34.7%	955	65.3%	-4	-0.6%
														
BUSH														
ND	308	63.0%	1.05	52.7	111	36.1%	197	63.9%	103	33.6%	204	66.4%	8	5.0%
AK	302	53.2%	1.02	51.1	111	36.8%	191	63.2%	121	40.1%	181	59.9%	-10	-6.7%
AL	1,870	58.3%	1.28	63.8	694	37.1%	1,176	62.9%	768	41.1%	1,102	58.9%	-74	-8.0%
KS	1,171	64.5%	1.27	63.3	435	37.1%	736	62.9%	405	34.6%	766	65.4%	30	5.1%
TX	7,360	58.3%	1.40	69.9	2,833	38.5%	4,527	61.5%	2,711	36.8%	4,648	63.2%	122	3.3%

SD	382	42.7%	1.05	52.3	149	39.1%	233	60.9%	143	37.4%	239	62.6%	6	3.3%
MT	440	63.0%	1.03	51.7	174	39.5%	266	60.5%	173	39.3%	267	60.7%	1	0.4%
IN	2,448	38.6%	1.49	74.7	969	39.6%	1,479	60.4%	1,003	41.0%	1,445	59.0%	-34	-2.8%
KY	1,782	52.6%	1.26	63.2	713	40.0%	1,069	60.0%	726	40.8%	1,056	59.2%	-14	-1.5%
MS	1,130	49.6%	1.06	53.0	458	40.5%	673	59.5%	488	43.2%	642	56.8%	-31	-5.4%

SC	1,600	59.4%	1.03	51.5	662	41.4%	938	58.6%	732	45.8%	867	54.2%	-71	-8.8%
GA	3,280	63.9%	1.52	75.8	1,366	41.6%	1,914	58.4%	1,414	43.1%	1,866	56.9%	-48	-2.9%
LA	1,922	47.8%	1.11	55.3	820	42.7%	1,102	57.3%	855	44.5%	1,067	55.5%	-35	-3.7%
TN	2,421	66.7%	1.44	71.8	1,036	42.8%	1,384	57.2%	996	41.2%	1,425	58.8%	40	3.3%
WV	750	48.7%	1.00	50.0	327	43.5%	424	56.5%	339	45.2%	411	54.8%	-13	-3.3%

NC	3,487	52.6%	1.35	67.3	1,526	43.8%	1,961	56.2%	1,650	47.3%	1,837	52.7%	-124	-7.1%
AZ	1,998	57.3%	1.00	49.9	894	44.7%	1,104	55.3%	931	46.6%	1,067	53.4%	-37	-3.7%
AR	1,043	60.2%	0.97	48.5	470	45.1%	573	54.9%	490	46.9%	554	53.1%	-19	-3.7%
VA	3,172	56.4%	0.82	40.9	1,455	45.9%	1,717	54.1%	1,521	48.0%	1,651	52.0%	-66	-4.2%
MO	2,715	47.0%	0.97	48.6	1,259	46.4%	1,456	53.6%	1,289	47.5%	1,426	52.5%	-30	-2.2%
														
EVEN														
FL	7,548	49.0%	1.48	73.8	3,584	47.5%	3,965	52.5%	3,769	49.9%	3,779	50.1%	-185	-4.9%
CO	2,103	55.5%	0.84	41.9	1,002	47.6%	1,101	52.4%	1,032	49.1%	1,071	50.9%	-30	-2.9%
NV	816	49.1%	0.92	45.9	397	48.7%	419	51.3%	413	50.7%	403	49.3%	-16	-4.0%
OH	5,599	44.1%	1.51	75.7	2,740	48.9%	2,859	51.1%	2,915	52.1%	2,684	47.9%	-175	-6.2%
NM	748	56.9%	0.92	45.8	371	49.6%	377	50.4%	384	51.3%	364	48.7%	-13	-3.5%

IA	1,494	52.6%	0.83	41.5	742	49.7%	752	50.3%	757	50.7%	737	49.3%	-15	-2.0%
WI	2,968	55.3%	0.82	41.0	1,490	50.2%	1,478	49.8%	1,490	50.2%	1,477	49.8%	-1	0.0%
NH	672	44.0%	0.88	43.8	341	50.7%	331	49.3%	373	55.5%	299	44.5%	-32	-9.6%
PA	5,732	46.8%	1.00	50.2	2,938	51.3%	2,794	48.7%	3,119	54.4%	2,613	45.6%	-181	-6.3%
MI	4,793	50.2%	0.84	41.8	2,479	51.7%	2,314	48.3%	2,519	52.6%	2,274	47.4%	-40	-1.7%

MN	2,792	45.3%	0.82	41.2	1,445	51.8%	1,347	48.2%	1,525	54.6%	1,267	45.4%	-80	-5.7%
OR	1,810	53.0%	0.81	40.6	943	52.1%	867	47.9%	927	51.2%	883	48.8%	16	1.8%
														
KERRY														
NJ	3,581	59.7%	0.83	41.6	1,911	53.4%	1,670	46.6%	2,010	56.1%	1,571	43.9%	-99	-5.5%
WA	2,815	53.8%	0.82	41.2	1,510	53.6%	1,305	46.4%	1,550	55.1%	1,265	44.9%	-40	-2.8%
DE	372	57.5%	0.92	46.0	200	53.8%	172	46.2%	217	58.4%	155	41.6%	-17	-9.2%
HI	426	53.4%	0.94	47.1	232	54.4%	194	45.6%	227	53.3%	199	46.7%	5	2.2%
ME	727	61.3%	0.87	43.7	397	54.6%	330	45.4%	399	54.8%	328	45.2%	-2	-0.5%

CA	12,255	50.5%	1.33	66.7	6,745	55.0%	5,510	45.0%	6,830	55.7%	5,425	44.3%	-85	-1.4%
IL	5,239	51.9%	0.85	42.5	2,892	55.2%	2,347	44.8%	2,993	57.1%	2,246	42.9%	-101	-3.9%
CT	1,551	51.0%	0.81	40.7	857	55.3%	694	44.7%	907	58.5%	644	41.5%	-50	-6.4%
MD	2,359	59.4%	0.82	41.0	1,334	56.6%	1,025	43.4%	1,346	57.0%	1,014	43.0%	-11	-0.9%
														
HIGH KERRY														
NY	7,277	57.9%	0.97	48.6	4,314	59.3%	2,963	40.7%	4,655	64.0%	2,622	36.0%	-340	-9.4%
VT	305	53.1%	0.89	44.7	184	60.3%	121	39.7%	201	65.7%	105	34.3%	-16	-10.8%
RI	429	44.2%	0.86	42.8	260	60.6%	169	39.4%	275	64.2%	153	35.8%	-16	-7.3%
MA	2,875	56.5%	0.96	48.1	1,804	62.7%	1,071	37.3%	1,911	66.5%	964	33.5%	-107	-7.4%
DC	224	53.5%	0.98	48.8	203	90.5%	21	9.5%	205	91.6%	19	8.4%	-2	-2.2%
														
Total	121,056	53.28%	1.12	52.52	59,028	48.76%	62,028	51.24%	61,141	50.51%	59,915	49.49%	-2113	-3.5%
Wtd														
														
					RECORDED VOTE				EXIT POLL RESPONDERS					
SUMMARY														
Total/Avg
Categ	Votes	RESP.	K/B	K/50B	Kvote	Pct	Bvote	Pct	Kpoll	Pct	Bpoll	Pct	Dev	Calc														
HBUSH	3,965	61.7%	1.18	59.2	1,251	30.9%	2,713	69.1%	1,333	33.3%	2,632	66.7%	-81	-4.80%
BUSH	39,582	55.2%	1.16	57.8	16,461	41.1%	23,121	58.9%	16,860	42.2%	22,722	57.8%	-400	-2.18%
EVEN	37,073	50.2%	0.97	48.6	18,471	50.0%	18,603	50.0%	19,222	51.9%	17,852	48.1%	-751	-3.75%
KERRY	29,326	55.4%	0.91	45.6	16,080	54.7%	13,246	45.3%	16,479	56.2%	12,847	43.8%	-399	-3.16%
HKERRY	11,110	53.0%	0.93	46.6	6,765	66.7%	4,345	33.3%	7,247	70.4%	3,863	29.6%	-482	-7.42%
														
Median														
HBUSH	767	63.2%	1.12	56.0	241	30.7%	513	69.3%	271	33.3%	487	66.7%	-16	-5.31%
BUSH	1,826	56.9%	1.06	52.9	703	40.9%	1,086	59.1%	750	42.1%	1,061	57.9%	-25	-3.14%
EVEN	2,447	49.7%	0.86	42.9	1,223	49.9%	1,224	50.1%	1,261	51.3%	1,169	48.7%	-31	-3.72%
KERRY	2,359	53.8%	0.85	42.5	1,334	54.6%	1,025	45.4%	1,346	56.1%	1,014	43.9%	-40	-2.84%
HKERRY	429	53.5%	0.96	48.1	260	60.6%	169	39.4%	275	65.7%	153	34.3%	-16	-7.44%
														
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