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Reply #16: Important Notes On The Critical States Data - From Jonathan Simon [View All]

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:53 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. Important Notes On The Critical States Data - From Jonathan Simon
From right at the bottom of his analysis

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states it is 2.5%.

Why? Hard evidence must be found to account for this egregious statistical pattern and to prove the actual fraud. This preliminary analysis is fairly crude, and there are probably other, more telling ways to slice and dice the data. Also, note that there were three exit poll "sweeps" which led to updates around 4 pm, 8 pm, 12 midnight, following which the "exit polls" were really contaminated by tabulated data and of no use at all as a check mechanism.

I caught mostly the third sweep here (c. 12:20 am); my guess is the second sweep would show even more dramatic discrepancies. While the first sweep has come under skeptical attack for having a too great female (pro-Kerry) weighting (the figure I heard was 58%/42% female), it is at least plausible to me that morning/daytime voters would be disproportionately female because of work schedules, so it may well be just one of the specious rationalizations behind a very determined coverup (we just don't know).

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