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Reply #12: Commentary On The Above Graph... What It Means [View All]

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-11-04 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Commentary On The Above Graph... What It Means
The key thing that is wrong with this graph is that it is not balanced.

QUOTING FAUN OTTER Here

There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the medias own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they dont say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.


Faun will correct me if I am wrong... But if this were the case then the red shift should have occurred over all the states. What we have is closer to his second option.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.


If this was true then the above image should be symmetrical. Just as many negative red shifts as positive red shifts.

As you can see that is not what we see. The vast majority of the big red shifts are in favour of the GOP including nearly all of those that are outside the margin of error.
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