EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER
7/9/05 5:26 AM
Given the data:
1- Bush 2-party vote (51.24%)
2- Exit poll response by Partisanship category
3- "Within Precinct Error" (WPE) by partisanship
category
Determine the following:
1- Exit poll results - aggregate and by partisanship category
2- K/B (alpha) - aggregate and by partisanship category
3- Required Bush percentage of refusers
4. Probability of deviation from exit poll to vote
KEY RESULTS:
1. Kerry won 52.15% of the 2-party vote, 3.39% higher than his
recorded 48.76%,
2. Kerry won 51.63% of the total vote, 3.35% higher than his
recorded 48.28%.
3. Kerry won 63.127mm votes, 4.10 more (6.50%) than his
recorded vote.
4. Bush won 57.929 mm votes, 4.10 less (7.08%) than his
recorded vote.
5. Of the 4.10mm vote shift, 3.45 were in competitive and
moderate Bush precincts.
6. Minimum aggregate alpha (k/b) is 1.155. The 1.12 stated at
AAPOR is NOT feasible.
7. Alpha is 1.062 in Kerry strongholds, compared to 1.214 in
other categories.
8. Alpha steadily increases from High Kerry (1.0) to High
Bush (1.50) categories, indicating a positive correlation
between vote discrepancy and Bush partisanship.
9.Bush needed 55.13% of refusers for his recorded 51.24%
2-party vote, compared to 47.85% of responders.
10. The probability of a 3.39% discrepancy between the exit
poll and vote is 1 in 63 billion.
2004 2-PTY 2-PTY TOTAL
VOTE PCT VOTE COUNT
Kerry 48.76% 59.027 48.28%
Bush 51.24% 62.029 50.73%
Total 100% 121.056 122.267
EXIT POLL
Kerry 52.15% 63.127 51.63%
Bush 47.85% 57.929 47.38%
Diff -3.39% -4.10 -3.35%
Diff/K -6.50% -6.50% -6.50%
Diff/B -7.08% -7.08% -7.08%
PROBABILITY of a 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and vote:
1 in 62,953,509,332
PARTISAN ALPHA
Kerry strongholds:1.062
All Other: 1.214
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)
Response - R 53.59%
K/B - alpha 1.158
PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS
Kerry 44.87%
Bush 55.13%
PARTISANSHIP RANGE CONSTRAINTS
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90
KERRY WIN%
Min 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Max 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
RESPONSE
Min 56% 55% 52% 55% 53%
Max 56% 55% 52% 55% 53%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0 0 0 0 0
Max 10 10 10 10 10
WPE
Min -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Max -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
Poll Count %Diff Poll Count Diff(mm)
Kerry 52.15% 48.76% -3.39% 63.127 59.027 -4.100
Bush 47.85% 51.24% 3.39% 57.929 62.029 4.100
Diff 4.29% -2.48% -6.77% 5.199 -3.002 -8.201
Pship HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Votes 3.87 40.19 52.30 15.98 8.72 121.056
Pct 3.2% 33.2% 43.2% 13.2% 7.2% 100.0%
RESP. 56.0% 55.0% 52.0% 55.0% 53.0% 53.59%
DevAvg 2.4% 1.4% -1.6% 1.4% -0.6% 0.0%
ALPHA
K/B 1.500 1.187 1.156 1.098 0.996 1.158
K/ 50B 75.0 59.3 57.8 54.9 49.8 57.9
DevAvg 29.5% 2.5% -0.2% -5.2% -14.0% 0.0%
VOTE
Kerry 0.77 13.11 28.58 9.59 6.97 59.027
Pct 20.0% 32.6% 54.6% 60.0% 80.0% 48.76%
Bush 3.10 27.08 23.72 6.39 1.74 62.029
Pct 80.0% 67.4% 45.4% 40.0% 20.0% 51.24%
RESPONDERS
Kerry 0.97 14.34 30.80 10.06 6.96 63.127
Pct 25.0% 35.7% 58.9% 63.0% 79.9% 52.15%
Bush 2.91 25.85 21.49 5.92 1.76 57.929
Pct 75.0% 64.3% 41.1% 37.1% 20.2% 47.85%
REFUSERS
Kerry 13.6% 28.9% 50.0% 56.4% 80.2% 44.87%
Bush 86.4% 71.1% 50.0% 43.6% 19.8% 55.13%
VOTE DEVIATION
Kerry -0.19 -1.23 -2.22 -0.47 0.01 -4.10
Pct -20.0% -8.5% -7.2% -4.7% 0.2% -6.5%
WPE
Calc -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Diff 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%