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Reply #69: Disagree with the model? Well, then stress-test it.... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #68
69. Disagree with the model? Well, then stress-test it....
Edited on Mon Jul-18-05 03:19 PM by TruthIsAll
The optimization satisfies all the constraints.
Do you agree with the input constraints?
Do you disagree with the outputs?

Here's your chance. Put it to the test.

Which input parameters do you wish to change?
WPE? They are given by Mitofsky.
The Bush 2-party vote? That's given.
Response rates? Given by Mitofsky.

You talk about arc tangent transforms or ln transforms or variances. But what about the algebra; what about constrained optimization; what about feasibility. Let's talk about real numbers; the total vote; vote percentages; the derived Kerry/Bush exit poll percentages which cause the deviations.

The model calculates deviations by precinct category. The fact is, and you have not been able to dispute this, it generates very plausible results.

Do you disagree with the assumption that votes/precinct are equal across partisanship? If you agree with that assumption, then you should agree that the significant vote deviations occurred in moderate Bush and non-partisan precinct groupings and that deviations in High Bush and partisan Kerry precincts are minor when compared to the total.

The vote deviations from the FINAL EXIT POLL increase in one direction - from Kerry to Bush partisanship. That is obvious from the data. Alpha (yes, Febble, I know it's a ratio) increases in the same direction - from Kerry to Bush. These measures confirm one another and make intuitive sense.

You would expect that Reluctant Republican responders who wanted to vote for Kerry would reside in Bush and competitive precincts - not in heavily democratic minority precincts.

The results of the optimizer make a lot of sense. They independently confirm the National Exit Poll at the 12:22am timeline of 13047 respondents. Kerry was the winner by 5 million votes - and that's a minimum. The 5 million do not include those disenfranchised who came to vote but never did due to the long lines and few machines, or those who never came to vote because their registrations were lost or invalidated.


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