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Reply #68: Well, the actual means, [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #67
68. Well, the actual means,
as I've said, would be a poor measure of the central tendency of alpha within the precinct categories. Median would be be more valid, and closer to the answer you would get if you took the mean of either the log or arctangent of the alphas, and then derived the alpha value that corresponded to those means, which I think IS valid.

And you say "the results must be very close to reality" - why must they be? Do you have confidence limits? Because the point is that in order to establish whether there really is a significant trend for alpha (or ln(alpha))to be higher as Bush's share of the vote increases, you have to know the the confidence limits of your means, which involves some estimate of the variance.

And the answer is, because Mitofsky did it, and I have verified it, is that there is no such trend.

ln(alpha) does not significantly increase as Bush's share of the vote increases.

You are about right in your estimate of the mean alpha, but not about that trend. There are many reasons why the aggregate values might give an illusory trend, but the fact is that it isn't there.

So, as I say, if the red-shift was due to fraud, fraud must have been greater in precincts that at started at the Kerry side of the plot, and shifted towards Bush - but not too far, otherwise there would be a slope. And there isn't one, not in the actual data.

Plenty of red-shift, but no slope.

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