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Reply #27: All I can say is [View All]

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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-03-05 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. All I can say is
there were high WPEs in both directions, meaning +/-. You can see this from the scatter plots and also from the higher abs (unsigned) mean WPEs in the tables.

So any hypothesis for the fraud based on the assumption that these exit polls were correct would also have to explain the high abs mean WPEs.

I said I didn't think "Bush strongholds" alone could determine the outcome of the election, but then you said "competitive and Bush precincts" could. I agree with that, but some of these could have been Kerry precincts and competitive precincts pre-fraud, morphed into competitive and Bush precincts respectively post-fraud. That's what the final distribution looks like.

Febble's function really only looks at WPE in a new way by compensating for the effects of partisanship. It neither proves rBr nor disproves fraud except to show that unlike WPE, alpha was not correlated with precinct partisanship. So what? This is really only controversial if our fraud hypothesis depends on vote shifting being correlated with partisanship. I don't think this has to be the case. (USCV might, but I haven't finished reading the latest version of their paper.)

As far as my state responder analysis, I'd feel better if it worked when actual numbers of votes were taken into account by weighting. It doesn't really, although the trend is still there. I guess we could say that so far we've failed to confirm rBr at the state level, even when population is taken into account. That's something.
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